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Here's another quote - and again, how does this relate to the current state of European finance?

The most likely scenario, should the Geithner plan go through, is a combination of looting, fraud, and a renewed speculation in volatile commodity markets such as oil. Ultimately the losses fall on the public anyway, since deposits are largely insured. There is no chance that the banks will simply resume normal long-term lending. To whom would they lend? For what? Against what collateral? And if banks are recapitalized without changing their management, why should we expect them to change the behavior that caused the insolvency in the first place?


"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Fri Mar 20th, 2009 at 04:53:58 AM EST
Everyone is focused on the need for banks "to start lending again". The current crisis is the result of a debt and credit binge (and we're not even at the hangover phase, we're vomiting into the toilet bowl so to speak). The solution cannot be more credit. But we don't know how to run our economy without credit. Unsecured credit such as overdraft facilities, credit cards and compnaies' revolving credit lines (used for operating expenses) are being cut. In the case of secured credit, mortgages are a dodgy proposition since property prices can be expected to continue to fall. As to project finance... Jerome can speak to this, but if the expectation is a 5-year recession it is very difficult to justify lending, too!

"No return to 'business as usual'" is right.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 20th, 2009 at 05:07:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Next stage will be the 'dry heaves'.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (paulgspencer@gmail.com) on Fri Mar 20th, 2009 at 03:11:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... functioning banking operations that can lend to credit-worth borrowers if the recovery should bottom out and with the easing of downside risk the number of credit-worthy people who find it prudent to borrow increases.

Trying to issue credit into a recession a refusal to admit to the reality that you cannot push on a string ...

... we need effective fiscal stimulus to address a deep recession of this sort in order to create a bottom as soon as possible, and throwing money into insolvent institutions so that they can burn through it simply undermines the capacity to do the public finance required by the stimulus.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 21st, 2009 at 07:35:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trying to issue credit into a recession a refusal to admit to the reality that you cannot push on a string ...

But that's what every policymaker wants, because they have learned that there is a correlation between credit and growth during the upwards phase of the economic cycle, they have been given kool-aid positing a causal link in the wrong direction (credit causes growth, rather than growth allows credit), and now that there is no growth and no credit, they want more credit. The saddest part of this is that everyone agrees that there has been an excess of credit over the last decade and yet in the same breath they demand more credit as the solution!

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 22nd, 2009 at 04:25:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The politicians that jump in front of the parade to say, "no, people need more income so they have an ability to repay debt" stand to make a big jump from the back of the political queue to a place near the front.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Mar 22nd, 2009 at 11:53:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps paying people wages that keep up with inflation in the states is a start.

Don't know about the rest of the world, but here they made obscene profits off the backs of the workers from the 1970's on and when we couldn't afford things they lent that profit back to us with interest and we depended on loans to pick up the slack our wages didn't pay for.

Something tells me this is just the fall before the rise of a global currency.

Textbooks will recall this time as "The Monetary Revolution" and forget (like the EU transition) about those who resisted being brought under a single currency and giving up a piece of our sovereignty.

"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the Black Flag, and begin to slit throats."- H.L. Mencken

by Jacks Smirking Revenge on Sun Mar 22nd, 2009 at 03:44:10 AM EST
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