My own prediction for the US is that with the stock market in the toilet (whether or not it hits bottom), many medium sized companies that could raise funds in equity markets will need bank lending for working financial capital should there be a prospect of new orders.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

Well, stock prices are underpinned by earnings, and for as long as earnings are perceived to be falling there won't be anything underpinning stock prices.

We're into second order effects now. If people are out of jobs then it doesn't matter much what the mortgage rate is or the market rent - they won't be able to pay.

So a second wave of defaults on apparently "prime" mortgages gathers pace.

I cannot see any conventional way of stopping the spiral we are in. The numbers are too fucking big.

Better try something unconventional, eh?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson