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I'll have to take issue with this:
the warrants against Bashir is the subversion of negotiations and diplomacy

because we don't have to look any farther than Bashir himself for subversion of diplomacy.

The ongoing effort coming out of Khartoum is to frustrate implementation of the CPA. I don't have to believe what I read in Op-ed pieces or hear at committee hearings to see this, I have only to look at the Sudan Times and read on the ground reports from UN personnel, the latest of which on the Malakal Crisis. Reports whose integrity I rely on subject to their own disclaimer:

Disclaimer: This report is a consolidation of information from OCHA field reports, UN agencies, UNMIS, NGOs, GoSS-SSRRC and other humanitarian partners. The report is subject to availability of data and does not claim to be exhaustive or fully verified and does not represent the official position of the United Nations. If you have inputs for the next edition, or questions/comments to the current issue, please contact. . . .

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 06:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes you're right about Bashir. My point however is this: If real force is excluded de facto, and Bashir is strengthened internally because of the warrant as he seems to be, isn't it likely that mediation is hampered by this action? Let alone the fact that this can be interpreted as "a slap in the face for the African Union". Or that totally predictable results of this action might prove deadly...

The only positive role this might play is adding some sort of leverage: "make a reasonable deal Bashir, and we'll withdraw the charges"... However I doubt that he cares that much, especially given that most of Africa and the Arab world is signaling that they won't accept the warrant. It might even harden his stance. It seems risky either way.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Mar 9th, 2009 at 07:59:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's true that an AU warrant would have been much, much better.

But the AU isn't worth much of a damn as a political entity, nevermind a legal one, and it's going to be a long, long while before it is.

I guess the take-home point here is that it's not trivial to balance the need for some semblance of international rule of law with the need to support emerging local institutions.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Mar 10th, 2009 at 06:37:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I would counter that supporting emerging regional institutions is in my book way above the appearance of international rule of law, as a way of discouraging / managing local crises in the medium term.

Especially, if we're talking about regional stability seriously, the AU should be put on all sorts of whatever is the diplomatic and economic equivalent of steroids for international organizations as fast as possible. Ignoring it does not help.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Mar 10th, 2009 at 07:14:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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