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Just another strain -- or is it a symptom?  -- of the Anglo Disease...

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Thu Apr 30th, 2009 at 05:40:29 PM EST
Or the first glimmer of a brutal mathusian backlash in a world overcrowded with people?

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Thu Apr 30th, 2009 at 09:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The first Malthusian backlash was Rwanda.  

Too many people for the agricultural production.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Apr 30th, 2009 at 10:19:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would all the same require some explanation.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 05:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's an interesting thought. Rwanda is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa, though I find the political/historical/ethnic explanations more convincing. At times, though, massive amounts of people fled the country due to spasms of violence. At least one country, Uganda, didn't want them and expelled them back into Rwanda. Burundi, and the DRC now have sizable Rwandan refugee populations (mostly Hutu), which contribute to the violence and complicate conflict in the region.

I have come across reports concerning the conflict in the DRC: Rwandan business elites in Kigali are putting militia over the border in order to extract coltran, a mineral from which tantalum is extracted (here and here, for instance). It is claimed that significant exports of Congolese coltran come from Kigali.

In all my reading on the topic of the genocide, I never came across a malthusian explanation. A component? Perhaps.

Carla Del Ponte rejects explanations of social and economic stress as the cause of genocide and crimes against humanity. To her, leaders who whip up the passions of bigotry and hatred are the movers. Certainly, both Rwanda and the FRY tend to bear her out on this.

However the reverse is almost certainly true: conflicts create humanitarian disasters.

But...make your case. I'll listen.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 07:07:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed [ISBN 0-14-303655-6], Chapter 10 and cites.  

The killings were higher where Tutsi and Hutu intermingled (11%) but there was still killings in a Hutu only area (5%).  

I find this most persuasive:

The percentage of the population consuming less than 1,600 calories per day (i.e., what is considered below the famine level) was 9% in 1982, 40% in 1990, and some unknown higher percentage thereafter.

People were starving to death in the midst of agriculturally productive land.  They didn't have enough land to grow enough food.  There were two options:  

  1.  Starve
  2.  Obtain more land

They chose the latter.

Similar situation occurred in the Sudan, there the trigger was lack of water and is starting to happen in Kenya.  Countries based on subsistence agriculture have a minimum acre/family farm size.  As the average farm falls below that figure tensions, primarily ethnic tho' also generational, sibling rivalry, economic class, and political tensions also increase.  Please note the last two.  By definition political tension is a threat to the Ruling Elite and, thus, provides the stimulus for a faction of that elite to continence and support intra-country violence.  The Ruling Elite, having the ability to organize and orchestrate violence does remain the immediate, proximate, trigger but the cause was per-capita food consumption.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 09:39:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People were starving to death in the midst of agriculturally productive land.

This can be due to at least three factors:

1.)  Too much of the available land is devoted to cash crops for export and the proceeds are retained by elites, leaving the poor with neither land on which to grow or money with which to buy food.

2.)  There is not enough land to support the existing population even if all the land is devoted to food.

3.)  The population is surviving on food crops grown in commons areas of marginal agricultural value and the most nutritious of these food crops is struck by a blight or drought.  This was the case in Ireland with the potato blight.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 01:22:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
actually in Ireland I believe point (1) was a huge contributor:  the best land was reserved for cash-cropping for staples exported to England, iirc.  Ireland was operated as a colony of England, with English landlords supervising hacienda agriculture and the indigenous (so to speak) Irish dispossessed and shuffled off onto the worst, most marginal land.

the potato (a New World crop brought back by the colonisers whose journeys were in part funded by the super-profits obtained by disposession and Enclosure) was touted as the solution to the "Irish problem" -- land too poor to support wheat/beef (high prestige) farming would support potatoes (which when mixed with dairy form a remarkably nutritious diet)... anyway, the history of the Irish famine is too long and complicated for a drive-by post but colonial cash-cropping was definitely a big part of the big picture.  someone must have more recent reading in the history of the Troubles than mine, and can fill in the gaps?

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 01:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
actually in Ireland I believe point (1) was a huge contributor:  the best land was reserved for cash-cropping for staples exported to England, iirc.  Ireland was operated as a colony of England, with English landlords supervising hacienda agriculture and the indigenous (so to speak) Irish dispossessed and shuffled off onto the worst, most marginal land.

That is what I thought I had said in my point 3.   :-)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 05:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
sorry I somehow thought it was a choice of 1, 2, or 3... reading in haste.  usually the cash-crop scenario involves the works:  peasant farmers are displaced from the good lands and forced to work very marginal soils;  monocrops encourage epidemic blights and pest population booms;  hacienda monocropping reduces soil fertility rendering even "good" lands exhausted and unproductive.  and so on.

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 06:39:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I need to be more clear in my comments.  :-)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat May 2nd, 2009 at 01:27:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Diamond writes it was #2 in Rwanda.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 03:14:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So how do you explain this:

?

http://schools-wikipedia.org/2006/wp/d/Demographics_of_Rwanda.htm


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 04:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First, from your link:

0-14 years: 43% (male 1,558,730; female 1,548,175)

With 43% of the population under 14 years old crunch time hasn't, again, happened.

From here [html of a pdf]:

Rwanda is definitely on the edge of food insecurity.  FAO (2007) reports an average per capita calorie intake in the years from 2002-2004 of around 2,100, which is just the minimum of intake for humans, and does certainly not allow any downward variation or distributional biases without jeopardizing food security ...

At this point the food situation in Rwanda is not desperate.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 07:43:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(hit post instead of preview)

The critical factor, it seems, is the percentage of the population existing at a low caloric intake.  Starvation does some strange things

Standard personality tests revealed that the starving individuals experienced a large rise in the "neurotic triad" -- hypochondriasis, depression, and hysteria

Get a lot of people exhibiting hysteria and you get mass hysteria and then Moral Panic:

Moral Panics have several distinct features. The process by which these are created is best explained with Cohen's Deviancy Amplification Spiral:

    * Concern - There must be awareness that the behaviour of the group or category in question is likely to have a negative impact on society.
    * Hostility - Hostility towards the group in question increases, and they become "folk devils". A clear division forms between "them" and "us".
    * Consensus - Though concern does not have to be nationwide, there must be widespread acceptance that the group in question poses a very real threat to society. It is important at this stage that the "moral entrepreneurs" are vocal and the "folk devils" appear weak and disorganised.
    * Disproportionality - The action taken is disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the accused group.
    * Volatility - Moral panics are highly volatile and tend to disappear as quickly as they appeared due to a wane in public interest or news reports changing to another topic.

So one hand washes the other, as it where.

The reality of needing to stop starving leads to a condition favorable for Moral Panic which leads mass murder of a The Other along the classic time line:

Right Now:  the murders get to eat the food of the murdered

Short Term: the murders get the land of the murdered to crop food.  The living get a greatly increased daily food supply due to drop in demand.

Long Term:  no solution if the country doesn't use the time to build an economic system independent of subsistence agriculture.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 08:10:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Easy.

In 1989 there was a severe drought. All agriculture suffered, including Rwanda's main cash crop, coffee, which was further pressured by falling world prices.

In 1991, the RPF invaded Rwanda from Uganda, and almost won, being stopped by the prescence of a handful French troops outside Kigali.

In 1993, the Arusha Accords were signed (and the drop bottoms out, with lag), but:

By that time, over 1.5 million civilians had left their homes to flee the selective massacres against Hutus by the RPF army.

Drought, falling prices, and civil war. The genocide, which was always highly organized and under the firm control of the army and the National Police (it was in no way a panic driven event), nonetheless benefited strongly from the masses of unemployed young Rwandans living in camps in Kigali. A malthusian contribution perhaps, but the genocide in Rwanda was as highly organized as the Holocaust, and politically driven.

Do you suppose that famine always leads to genocide?

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 09:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I really need to learn how to do charts, so here goes:



"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 09:38:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That curve is one of the scariest I have ever seen, both up and down and up again.
by Deni on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 09:34:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I've heard, Hutus were targeted for being moderate, like Acting Prime Minister Madame Agathe Uwilingiyimana and human rights worker Monique Mujawamariya.

The practice of killing some Hutus in order to convince others (mostly reticent local leaders) to join the genocidaires and mobilize their people was also institutionalized.

There was also believed to have been widespread false registration (believed to be Tutsi claiming to be Hutu - this is cited as the major factor in the difficulty in numbering the murdered).

The genocide itself was extremely well organized, with orders going down an institutionalized chain of command, and reports coming back up that same chain.

Fears among the Hutu (shamelessly exploited) were exacerbated by the assasination (by Tutsi) of the freely elected Hutu president of Burundi.

Members of the Rwandan akuza ("little house" - the group of business and government elites centered, not around the president Habyarimana, but his wife, it was also called the "clan de Madame") were seen in conversation, sharing beers, with army leaders directing the genocide in the early hours and days after the president's plane was shot down and the killing began. They are believed to be central players, one of whom actually imported the thousands of machetes to be used by the Interahamwe.

All this tends to argue for political rather than Mathusian causes.

There is evidence for your claim, though:

"At the end of the 1980s, coffee, which accounted for 75 percent of Rwanda's foreign exchange, dropped sharply in price on the international market. Suddenly Rwanda found itself among the many debtor nations required to accept strict fiscal measures imposed by the World Bank and the donor nations. The urban elite saw its comfort threatened, but the rural poor suffered even more. A drought beginning in 1989 reduced harvests in the south and left substantial numbers of people short of food. Habyarimana at first refused to acknowledge the gravity of the food shortage, an attitude that exemplified the readiness of the urban elite to ignore suffering out on the hills." (emphasis mine)

--Leave None to Tell The Story (pdf, 540 pages), Human Rights Watch report on the Rwandan Genocide, Alison Des Forges et al.

Famine happens all too frequently, and is not always accompanied by genocide (Somalia, for instance). All else being equal, would the Rwandan genocide have happened if the country was prosperous, well nourished and without the large unemployed population? We'll never know, but I doubt it. Lots of things went into the events in Rwanda in 1994 that were driven by those parts of society which were living very fat indeed.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 09:02:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This bothers me - not that a Malthusian backlash through pathogen mutation in an overcrowded world is in any way an improbable scenario - because there seems to be an assumption beneath it (though you may not have meant this) that industrial agriculture is rendered inevitable by population increase (see the agro-industry "We feed the world" propaganda to that effect).

Factory farming is not a necessity in view of high population, it's just a money-making operation. The world can feed a higher population than now without it (though we in the developed nations would need to consume less meat, just as we need to consume less energy).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 08:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Factory farming has the "benefit" of "freeing" the rural population to move to urban areas, increasing the total labor force, competing for urban jobs, and forcing down  urban wages.  In a globalized economy this can occur extra-nationally as we've seen in the migration from rural areas of China to the Pacific Rim cities.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 10:03:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Whereas intensive local agriculture has the "benefit" of providing greater employment, contributes less to fossil fuel use by requiring less transportation and has the potential to provide healthier food and living conditions for all.  To get from here to there profitably in the USA requires revisions to the agricultural policy as embodied in the five year plan recently passed by the US Congress and revisions to tax codes, etc.  

This, of course, will be opposed by the small group of wealthy individuals who benefit from the existing system.  Once again reform of election finance is important to enabling key reforms.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 1st, 2009 at 01:41:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
great diary...

shit like this makes me so glad to be a vegan.

actually it's just as sad what they do to plants for profit. and the earth itself...

meat eating is not the problem, excessive meat eating IS.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Apr 30th, 2009 at 10:27:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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