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The killings were higher where Tutsi and Hutu intermingled (11%) but there was still killings in a Hutu only area (5%).
I find this most persuasive:
The percentage of the population consuming less than 1,600 calories per day (i.e., what is considered below the famine level) was 9% in 1982, 40% in 1990, and some unknown higher percentage thereafter.
People were starving to death in the midst of agriculturally productive land. They didn't have enough land to grow enough food. There were two options:
Similar situation occurred in the Sudan, there the trigger was lack of water and is starting to happen in Kenya. Countries based on subsistence agriculture have a minimum acre/family farm size. As the average farm falls below that figure tensions, primarily ethnic tho' also generational, sibling rivalry, economic class, and political tensions also increase. Please note the last two. By definition political tension is a threat to the Ruling Elite and, thus, provides the stimulus for a faction of that elite to continence and support intra-country violence. The Ruling Elite, having the ability to organize and orchestrate violence does remain the immediate, proximate, trigger but the cause was per-capita food consumption. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
People were starving to death in the midst of agriculturally productive land.
This can be due to at least three factors:
1.) Too much of the available land is devoted to cash crops for export and the proceeds are retained by elites, leaving the poor with neither land on which to grow or money with which to buy food.
2.) There is not enough land to support the existing population even if all the land is devoted to food.
3.) The population is surviving on food crops grown in commons areas of marginal agricultural value and the most nutritious of these food crops is struck by a blight or drought. This was the case in Ireland with the potato blight. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
the potato (a New World crop brought back by the colonisers whose journeys were in part funded by the super-profits obtained by disposession and Enclosure) was touted as the solution to the "Irish problem" -- land too poor to support wheat/beef (high prestige) farming would support potatoes (which when mixed with dairy form a remarkably nutritious diet)... anyway, the history of the Irish famine is too long and complicated for a drive-by post but colonial cash-cropping was definitely a big part of the big picture. someone must have more recent reading in the history of the Troubles than mine, and can fill in the gaps? The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
actually in Ireland I believe point (1) was a huge contributor: the best land was reserved for cash-cropping for staples exported to England, iirc. Ireland was operated as a colony of England, with English landlords supervising hacienda agriculture and the indigenous (so to speak) Irish dispossessed and shuffled off onto the worst, most marginal land.
?
http://schools-wikipedia.org/2006/wp/d/Demographics_of_Rwanda.htm In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
0-14 years: 43% (male 1,558,730; female 1,548,175)
With 43% of the population under 14 years old crunch time hasn't, again, happened.
From here [html of a pdf]:
Rwanda is definitely on the edge of food insecurity. FAO (2007) reports an average per capita calorie intake in the years from 2002-2004 of around 2,100, which is just the minimum of intake for humans, and does certainly not allow any downward variation or distributional biases without jeopardizing food security ...
At this point the food situation in Rwanda is not desperate. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The critical factor, it seems, is the percentage of the population existing at a low caloric intake. Starvation does some strange things
Standard personality tests revealed that the starving individuals experienced a large rise in the "neurotic triad" -- hypochondriasis, depression, and hysteria
Get a lot of people exhibiting hysteria and you get mass hysteria and then Moral Panic:
Moral Panics have several distinct features. The process by which these are created is best explained with Cohen's Deviancy Amplification Spiral: * Concern - There must be awareness that the behaviour of the group or category in question is likely to have a negative impact on society. * Hostility - Hostility towards the group in question increases, and they become "folk devils". A clear division forms between "them" and "us". * Consensus - Though concern does not have to be nationwide, there must be widespread acceptance that the group in question poses a very real threat to society. It is important at this stage that the "moral entrepreneurs" are vocal and the "folk devils" appear weak and disorganised. * Disproportionality - The action taken is disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the accused group. * Volatility - Moral panics are highly volatile and tend to disappear as quickly as they appeared due to a wane in public interest or news reports changing to another topic.
* Concern - There must be awareness that the behaviour of the group or category in question is likely to have a negative impact on society. * Hostility - Hostility towards the group in question increases, and they become "folk devils". A clear division forms between "them" and "us". * Consensus - Though concern does not have to be nationwide, there must be widespread acceptance that the group in question poses a very real threat to society. It is important at this stage that the "moral entrepreneurs" are vocal and the "folk devils" appear weak and disorganised. * Disproportionality - The action taken is disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the accused group. * Volatility - Moral panics are highly volatile and tend to disappear as quickly as they appeared due to a wane in public interest or news reports changing to another topic.
So one hand washes the other, as it where.
The reality of needing to stop starving leads to a condition favorable for Moral Panic which leads mass murder of a The Other along the classic time line:
Right Now: the murders get to eat the food of the murdered
Short Term: the murders get the land of the murdered to crop food. The living get a greatly increased daily food supply due to drop in demand.
Long Term: no solution if the country doesn't use the time to build an economic system independent of subsistence agriculture. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
In 1989 there was a severe drought. All agriculture suffered, including Rwanda's main cash crop, coffee, which was further pressured by falling world prices.
In 1991, the RPF invaded Rwanda from Uganda, and almost won, being stopped by the prescence of a handful French troops outside Kigali.
In 1993, the Arusha Accords were signed (and the drop bottoms out, with lag), but:
By that time, over 1.5 million civilians had left their homes to flee the selective massacres against Hutus by the RPF army.
Drought, falling prices, and civil war. The genocide, which was always highly organized and under the firm control of the army and the National Police (it was in no way a panic driven event), nonetheless benefited strongly from the masses of unemployed young Rwandans living in camps in Kigali. A malthusian contribution perhaps, but the genocide in Rwanda was as highly organized as the Holocaust, and politically driven.
Do you suppose that famine always leads to genocide? "It Can't Be Just About Us"--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
"It Can't Be Just About Us"--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
The practice of killing some Hutus in order to convince others (mostly reticent local leaders) to join the genocidaires and mobilize their people was also institutionalized.
There was also believed to have been widespread false registration (believed to be Tutsi claiming to be Hutu - this is cited as the major factor in the difficulty in numbering the murdered).
The genocide itself was extremely well organized, with orders going down an institutionalized chain of command, and reports coming back up that same chain.
Fears among the Hutu (shamelessly exploited) were exacerbated by the assasination (by Tutsi) of the freely elected Hutu president of Burundi.
Members of the Rwandan akuza ("little house" - the group of business and government elites centered, not around the president Habyarimana, but his wife, it was also called the "clan de Madame") were seen in conversation, sharing beers, with army leaders directing the genocide in the early hours and days after the president's plane was shot down and the killing began. They are believed to be central players, one of whom actually imported the thousands of machetes to be used by the Interahamwe.
All this tends to argue for political rather than Mathusian causes.
There is evidence for your claim, though:
"At the end of the 1980s, coffee, which accounted for 75 percent of Rwanda's foreign exchange, dropped sharply in price on the international market. Suddenly Rwanda found itself among the many debtor nations required to accept strict fiscal measures imposed by the World Bank and the donor nations. The urban elite saw its comfort threatened, but the rural poor suffered even more. A drought beginning in 1989 reduced harvests in the south and left substantial numbers of people short of food. Habyarimana at first refused to acknowledge the gravity of the food shortage, an attitude that exemplified the readiness of the urban elite to ignore suffering out on the hills." (emphasis mine) --Leave None to Tell The Story (pdf, 540 pages), Human Rights Watch report on the Rwandan Genocide, Alison Des Forges et al.
--Leave None to Tell The Story (pdf, 540 pages), Human Rights Watch report on the Rwandan Genocide, Alison Des Forges et al.
Famine happens all too frequently, and is not always accompanied by genocide (Somalia, for instance). All else being equal, would the Rwandan genocide have happened if the country was prosperous, well nourished and without the large unemployed population? We'll never know, but I doubt it. Lots of things went into the events in Rwanda in 1994 that were driven by those parts of society which were living very fat indeed. "It Can't Be Just About Us"--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
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