To me a one meter+ rise is quite conceivable, and perhaps likely, over a forty year period.

And Patrice seems to suggest he is as pessimistic about this. What are your reasons/thoughts behind this?

I ask because there are at least two groups that I know which do not think this is likely. The first the AR4 from the IPCC, the second the Dutch water boards. My uncle used to work for the latter, and the consensus remains that for 2100 the Netherlands will not face a 1 meter rise of sea level.

Granted, I'm one of the first to say that in climate change we don't know what we don't know, and a lot uncertainty remains, but on what is this pessimism based?