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The Iranian Security forces are making an all-out effort to isolate Iran from the web. I'm rephrasing Twitters & etc to make it harder for the bastards to track down sources.
Continual reports the Army is unwilling to be used by the regime for protester repression. Iranian State Security (?) keeps spreading the message the Army is here, there, or somewhere ... but the Army never seems to show-up.
The mullahs are split. Some are supporting the regime, some are marching with the protesters, some are watching and waiting, some are maneuvering for advantage. No definitive statement from Qom (Council of Experts, etc.) although the regime tried to 'jump the gun' by spreading a false statement late yesterday.
The bazarris (merchants) have been under economic pressure from the sanctions and competition from Revolutionary Guard. They seem to be slowly moving towards support of the Greens but these reports could be wishful thinking.
Ahmadinejad surfaced yesterday and "urged the United States and Britain to stop intervening in its domestic affairs." Ploy based on the successful repression of the 2003 student protests, one supposes.
Reports coming in from several locations of large scale protests continuing outside of Tehran. Also reports of police using batons, water cannon, and - I'm afraid - gunfire to stop/control the protests. At this point the use of guns is sporadic and, it must be said, undisciplined. So far.
No confirmed reports of Revolutionary Guard heavy equipment (tanks, armored cars, heavy machine guns, etc) being used in repression. At this point, with the regime seeming to be engaged in an strong effort to stop the protesters, one begins to wonder why.
A functional Khatami/Mousavi/Rafsanjani alliance, however temporary, may be forming on the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" basis. If I understand correctly, these represent the factions of the Elite pushed out by Ahmadinejad, et.al., over the past couple of years. (See Chris' diary Iran: Religion, Modernity...or just Business? for more information.)
Protesters have powerful backers (Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Larijani). Do they cont to back uprising or cut political deal?
Here is the wikipedia bio for Larijani.
She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
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