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The Iranian Security forces are making an all-out effort to isolate Iran from the web.  I'm rephrasing Twitters & etc to make it harder for the bastards to track down sources.

Continual reports the Army is unwilling to be used by the regime for protester repression.  Iranian State Security (?) keeps spreading the message the Army is here, there, or somewhere ... but the Army never seems to show-up.  

The mullahs are split.  Some are supporting the regime, some are marching with the protesters, some are watching and waiting, some are maneuvering for advantage.  No definitive statement from Qom (Council of Experts, etc.) although the regime tried to 'jump the gun' by spreading a false statement late yesterday.

The bazarris (merchants) have been under economic pressure from the sanctions and competition from Revolutionary Guard.  They seem to be slowly moving towards support of the Greens but these reports could be wishful thinking.

Ahmadinejad surfaced yesterday and "urged the United States and Britain to stop intervening in its domestic affairs."  Ploy based on the successful repression of the 2003 student protests, one supposes.

Reports coming in from several locations of large scale protests continuing outside of Tehran.  Also reports of police using batons, water cannon, and - I'm afraid - gunfire to stop/control the protests.  At this point the use of guns is sporadic and, it must be said, undisciplined.  So far.  

No confirmed reports of Revolutionary Guard heavy equipment (tanks, armored cars, heavy machine guns, etc) being used in repression.  At this point, with the regime seeming to be engaged in an strong effort to stop the protesters, one begins to wonder why.  

A functional Khatami/Mousavi/Rafsanjani alliance, however temporary, may be forming on the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" basis.  If I understand correctly, these represent the factions of the Elite pushed out by Ahmadinejad, et.al., over the past couple of years.  (See Chris' diary Iran: Religion, Modernity...or just Business? for more information.)

  •  Khatami: release those arrested in protests

  •  Mousavi: ppl to turn car lights on from 5pm to 6pm in support those killed and to get around ban on rallies

  •  Rafsanjani:  crickets but supposedly running a meeting of the Council of Experts to solve the crisis

Reports from the ground are saying as the regime interdicts telecommunications the protesters are going back to printing news sheets and small run newspapers and distributing those across the country to maintain information flow within the Green Movement. (Source: NicoPitney, HuffPost)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 02:50:59 PM EST

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