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Well for the state to change, a major part of the state really needs to go over to the rebellion, and absent something like a senior genrals grandchild being shot in the protests, or the state deciding that the army is unreliable, and screws up taking control, or deciding that the oil firms are riddled with US and UK agents bent on the overthrow of the state. It's all up to the state to loose. panic is really their biggest enemy.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 06:33:57 PM EST
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I think it is likely that Khamenei of Ahmadinejad will panic, but they're not the "regime", they are one faction. Montazeri and Khatami are clerics, Mousavi has not reneged on Khomeini and he was the Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq war.

So expecting "regime change" is a bit much, but if the opposition is patient they will eventually force Khatami to make a fatal mistake.

A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 04:22:57 AM EST
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