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To this point the most aggressive actions by protestors seem to be knocking over Basji motorcycles and setting them afire combined with Molotov cocktails thrown at (presumedly Basji) buildings.  Mostly the confrontation seems to be protesters sacrificing their bodies, if not their lives.  It would only take a small escalation for protesters to start carrying 1.5m x 2-3cm staffs, which would make Basji motorcycles in close quarters totally unviable.

A big indicator would also be confirmed reports of protesters, police and/or Revolutionary Guards using weapons against Basji in defense of protesters.  It is starting to look like the events leading up to the storming of the Bastille.  It is unclear if the current fire will have to burn itself out or if calmer heads can prevail.  Revolutions acquire a dynamic of their own which then seems to drive events by their own internal logic or dialectic.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:21:18 PM EST
Plus, people throwing and setting fire to stuff.

If there's a pushback on this scale, and the military are standing by and not supporting the nominal leadership, I don't see how the nominal leadership can stay in control.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The regime still can always turn to the Revolutionary Guards who possess modern military equipment.  I haven't seen any reports they have been deployed to the streets.  I don't know if they are trained in crowd control, but I doubt it.  Sending them is would be a big, big step and really escalate the situation.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If reports of splits in the Revolutionary Guards, with one faction being associated with Rafsanjani, are correct, the regime may be afraid to ask for their support.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sending the military to repress the crowd was the final mistake of the Shah.  It fractured his armed support: some repressed, some sided with the protesters, some just went home.  Same thing happened with the Mensheviks in the Russian Revolution.

IF the regime is unable to rely on their armed organizations they're dog meat.  If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.  Thus, support for the Greens can be found within the regime itself.  Assuming the previous has some contact with reality, Ahmadinejad, et.al., are having to spend time dealing with that as well as the street protests.  With the upper leadership in disarray/fighting amongst themselves it implies the lower ranks of the hierarchy are on their own, to a certain extent with counter-measures up to local/regional commanders.  

If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.

That's my understanding.

The "coup" was not about ideology or dogma: it was about business, and it's not something that many of the protagonists are prepared to die for now that it's going pear-shaped.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:40:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HOLD THE LIVE BLOG!!!!!!!

Somebody who knows what he is talking about is here!

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM
If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.

Exactly!  All of the major players among the protest faction are major players and participants in Iranian politics since the fall of the Shah.  It is bad enough when you loose most of the educated and most of the business class, but when the division splits your own government you are pretty hapless.  Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of sons of bitches.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm irresistibly reminded of Churchill's comment re observing politics in Soviet Russia...

"...like watching dogs fight under a carpet...."

..an Iranian carpet being particularly apt...

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as it did in Greece?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To be fair, the Greece protests appeared to be on a much smaller scale, with a much lower level of greivance.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:27:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hmmm. To what "scale" do you refer? Surely not one man, one riot.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well assuming we're talking about the same Greek riots, Id say much narrower segments of society involved, much lower number of protestors.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would you care to compare numbers estimates of protest days, protestors, protestor casualties, capital losses, and police demographics reported by bloggers?

Starting here, ending with some generalizable patterns glossed by search results (landline and mobile). Which reminds me.

A few weeks ago someone sent a request to "follow me." Apart from two entries in response to another person who I knew personally and had asked me to sign on (March), I do not participate. The request came frome a stranger who "follows" nearly 200 UIDs.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well all the numbers are extremely untrustworthy, even on the view back to the past with the Greek riots. CNN is reporting 150 deaths in the past week, who knows where the truth actually lies.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:44:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Truth" is agreement. So you tell me: Why anyone would agree "'the translator reportedly quoted Obama as saying he "supports the protesters against the government and they should keep protesting'" is pernicious, or false ("Obama, of course, said no such thing.")? Didn't he?


Click to enlarge.
Q: Let's move on to news of the day. The Ayatollah Khamenei gave his - speech today and gave his sermon. He said that the election in Iran was, in fact, legitimate. He said, quote/unquote, "the street - street demonstrations are unacceptable." Do you have a message for those people in the street?

A: I absolutely do. Well, first of all, let's understand that this notion that somehow these hundreds of thousands of people who are pouring into the streets in Iran are somehow responding to the West or the United States. that's an old distraction that I think has been trotted out periodically. And that's just not gonna fly.

What you're seeing in Iran are hundreds of thousands of people who believe their voices were not heard and who are peacefully protesting and - and seeking justice. And the world is watching. And we stand behind those who are seeking justice in a peaceful way. And, you know, already we've seen violence out there. I think I've said this throughout the week. I want to repeat it that we stand with those who would look to peaceful resolution of conflict, and we believe that the voices of people have to be heard, that that's a universal value that the American people stand for and this administration stands for.

And I'm very concerned based on some of the tenor and tone of the statements that have been made that the government of Iran recognize that the world is watching. And how they approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard will, I think, send a pretty clear signal to the international community about what Iran is - and is not.

But the last point I want to make on this - this is not an issue of the United States or the West versus Iran. This is an issue of the Iranian people. The fact that they are on the streets under pretty severe duress, at great risk to themselves, is a sign that there's something in that society that wants to open up.

And, you know, we respect Iran's sovereignty. And we respect the fact that ultimately the Iranian people have to make these decisions. But I hope that the world understands that this is not something that has to do with the outside world. This has to do with what's happening in Iran. And, I think ultimately the Iranian people, will obtain justice.

Q: People in this country say you haven't said enough, that you haven't been forceful enough in your support for those people in the street, and which you say?

A: To which I say the last thing that I want to do is to have the United States be a foil for those forces inside Iran who would love nothing better than to make this an argument about the United States. That's what they do. That's what we've already seen. We shouldn't be playing into that. There should be no distractions from the fact that the Iranian people are seeking to let their voices be heard.

Now, what we can do is bear witness and say to the world that the, you know, incredible demonstrations that we've seen is a testimony to, I think what Dr. King called the the arc of the moral universe. It's long but it bends towards justice.

As if these examples were the only versions of propaganda propagated by either US or IR regimes by ICT actors. AS IF the US state department had not boasted about its IT synergies. AS IF "[T]his is not an issue of the United States or the West versus Iran" after 6+ years of economic sanctions and confiscations, US funded paramilitary operations into Iran, US funded emigration. AS IF Westworld --even the CCP-- had never and would never deploy inland militia, tear gas, water canons, batons, rubber and live ammo, FIRE BOMBS, dogs and provocateurs to pacify "protestors" against the state.

puleeze, tell "buffyc" to put her fuckin' iphone down and tend my yard. Not hers.

The only people who benefit from "regime change" and so-called martyrdom in Iran are the people holding the oil securities.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 07:01:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the chances of Buffyc being inside Iran are vanishingly small, It wouldn't surprise me  if a good proportion of earlymessages were the product of outside actors, a few messages put into the phone or IT systems at the right time could be quite effective at swinging any political event in the way that would be favourable to large scale actors.

AS IF Westworld --even the CCP-- had never and would never deploy inland militia, tear gas, water canons, batons, rubber and live ammo, FIRE BOMBS, dogs and provocateurs to pacify "protestors" against the state

I'm sure moxt of us can think of plwnty of examples of most of these either being used, threatend to be used, or prepared and hidden in case of need if not actually been used. I can't think of a particular action where the forces of Law and OrderTM have decided to use FIRE BOMBS against protestors

as for the only people who benefit from regieme change and so-called Martyrdom in Iran being people holding Oil securities, that depends who ends up in charge after regieme change, your oil securities could end up worth as much as toilet paper.

The two Obama quotes you put out are both from a point chronologically much later then the  Iranian TV broadcast which the original statement perportedly comes from.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 10:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't think of a particular action where the forces of Law and OrderTM have decided to use FIRE BOMBS against protestors

If you lived in the US, you'd be thinking of Philadelphia and Waco, at least.

Oil securities, that depends who ends up in charge after regieme change, your oil securities could end up worth as much as toilet paper.

Toilet paper? That remark is just trifling, ceebs. Why you wanna play the history of commodities trading like that?

The two Obama quotes you put out are both from a point chronologically much later then the  Iranian TV broadcast which the original statement perportedly comes from.

"much later," mmm, no.

CBS Evening News broadcasts at 7pm EST, daily. See CBS transcript (right) of a recorded interview with Obama, televised 19 June 2009 at 7pm.

07:00:00 p.m. Friday June 19, 2009 in America/New_York  converts to
03:30:00 a.m. Saturday June 20, 2009 in Asia/Tehran
(Time Zone Converter)

The White House HTML issue (left) that you identified is dated 20 June 2009.

Now the absurd question before us is to which statement the anonymous Iranian translator refers. Are you willing to argue an "Iranian Satellite TV" broadcast of President Obama speaking about Iran "this morning" (3:30 a.m., 20 June 2009) was not a copy of the CBS Evening News interview?

And have you ever met a M-16 "media analyst"? I have. In NYC. So I'm betting the Iranian Satellite TV broadcast was lifted straight up from Time-Warner cable. Or Comcast. Or Cox ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 09:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I wouldn't really call Waco a political protest (and many of the reports of fire bombs do seem to come from right wirng conspiracy sites)

You have to admit that it would be one of the first priorities for outside companies after any change in government through overthrow would be to make sure that all the outstanding oil contracts remain valid.  It could be that the new govrnment might declare that some were gained illegally through bribery of government officials, and hence annul them.

The whie house speach at 3:30 am Tehran would put it at 7:am GMT which is an hour after Drew posted it as being reported 'earlier this morning' so yes I am suggesting that this was not that broadcast, although with the difference in time zones it may be there is a degree of confusion.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 10:01:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Confusion" has nothing to do with Drew, EST or GMT. Drew opened the "live blog" at ~5:30am 20 June EST, ~3pm TEHRAN time. Morning there had long past. Explaining the dated assessment of the broadcast by Drew's unknown source and, it appears, ignorance of the 19 June interview.

Iranian TV re-broadcast the 19 June 7PM EST CBS interview for Iranian audiences must have been 3:30am - noon TEHRAN, 20 June. Perhaps he'll link to C-SPAN or YouTube dub of alternative material to clear up the "confusion." The only televised Obama event 19 June EST re: Iran: Perhaps we'll get a link to YouTube dub of alternative broadcasters to clear up the "confusion." But it is content of these remarks --not HTML White House PR-- which Mousavi supporters are repeating four days later to substantiate their civil rights credentials.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Jun 24th, 2009 at 06:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Greece riots were primarily - exclusively? - urban youth and university students to boot sparked by the police gunning down a college student for no good reason.

They reflect the 2003 Iranian protests better than those happening as we speak.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:11:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This 2003 Iran protest?

North American media help Iran protests grow | SF Gate | 20 June 2003

Some experts call it a "media movement" or a "satellite revolution." But whatever the label, one thing is clear: A growing network of Iranian American media outlets -- from television to radio to Web sites -- is helping spark the student-led protests erupting in that Islamic nation.

The demonstrations would have occurred anyway, the experts say, but satellite networks like National Iranian Television and Radio Iran (both based in Los Angeles) are beaming programming that actively supports the demonstrators' cause into the country.

Web sites in the United States and Canada are also providing an important outlet for Iran's disaffected youth and dissident voices, many of whom are demanding that Tehran's clerical rulers step down or at least relax the social restrictions that have been imposed on Iranians for 20 years.

Through this media phalanx, the Iranian American community now has the collective power to influence what goes on in Iran -- a historical shift that alarms the Shiite mullahs who have ruled the country since 1979, said Abbas Milani, a visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. ...

Chalabi(s) 3.0

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:15:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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