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ChrisCook:
Someone I am working with said that two of his sisters - one is a university lecturer - and most of the people he knows there are out on the street. Of his family of maybe 200 in Tehran, only one is an Ahmadinejad supporter.

These are middle class people who have been badly hit by the 75% or so inflation rate (as opposed to the official rate). They are the people in the marzipan layer who actually run Iran.

The participation of women is widespread, and could well be crucial to the outcome, as it was in Iceland.

My friend says that there will be no going back to the staus quo ante, and that the next few days will be crucial.

This quote two days ago from a very well placed (and genuinely religious, although he makes nothing of it) contact of mine in Iran summed it up.

Yes, the situation is very unpleasant and unexpected. We have no doubt that we are now facing a situation that a group with some sort of ideology that in our opinion is very different with what late Emam Khomeini presented to us are consolidating their administrative power. What worries me is the fact that they have not yet clearly indicated what sort of political view as well as religious sect they would like whole country to follow.

My friend also said that one of his nephews was in a group that picked up four arabic-speaking Basiji last night off motorbikes and took them to a warehouse. After giving them a good kicking the rather hapless youths explained that they were cadet Hezbollahi from Lebanon who had been told that they were on some kind of exercise and sent out to crack a few heads....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:27:55 PM EST

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