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If reports of splits in the Revolutionary Guards, with one faction being associated with Rafsanjani, are correct, the regime may be afraid to ask for their support.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:42:26 PM EST
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Sending the military to repress the crowd was the final mistake of the Shah.  It fractured his armed support: some repressed, some sided with the protesters, some just went home.  Same thing happened with the Mensheviks in the Russian Revolution.

IF the regime is unable to rely on their armed organizations they're dog meat.  If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.  Thus, support for the Greens can be found within the regime itself.  Assuming the previous has some contact with reality, Ahmadinejad, et.al., are having to spend time dealing with that as well as the street protests.  With the upper leadership in disarray/fighting amongst themselves it implies the lower ranks of the hierarchy are on their own, to a certain extent with counter-measures up to local/regional commanders.  

If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:57:35 PM EST
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ATinNM:
If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.

That's my understanding.

The "coup" was not about ideology or dogma: it was about business, and it's not something that many of the protagonists are prepared to die for now that it's going pear-shaped.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:40:15 PM EST
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HOLD THE LIVE BLOG!!!!!!!

Somebody who knows what he is talking about is here!

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM
If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.

Exactly!  All of the major players among the protest faction are major players and participants in Iranian politics since the fall of the Shah.  It is bad enough when you loose most of the educated and most of the business class, but when the division splits your own government you are pretty hapless.  Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of sons of bitches.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:58:48 PM EST
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I'm irresistibly reminded of Churchill's comment re observing politics in Soviet Russia...

"...like watching dogs fight under a carpet...."

..an Iranian carpet being particularly apt...

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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