Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Sending the military to repress the crowd was the final mistake of the Shah.  It fractured his armed support: some repressed, some sided with the protesters, some just went home.  Same thing happened with the Mensheviks in the Russian Revolution.

IF the regime is unable to rely on their armed organizations they're dog meat.  If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.  Thus, support for the Greens can be found within the regime itself.  Assuming the previous has some contact with reality, Ahmadinejad, et.al., are having to spend time dealing with that as well as the street protests.  With the upper leadership in disarray/fighting amongst themselves it implies the lower ranks of the hierarchy are on their own, to a certain extent with counter-measures up to local/regional commanders.  

If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:57:35 PM EST
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