The best proxy I know for "supply and demand" in the oil market is spare capacity:

(source: my diary OPEC blames speculation from July 2nd, 2008)

Is it possible that oil demand is so inelastic to explain a factor of 4 from peak to trough? ($145 to $35/bbl)

Do people know where to find an up-to-date production capacity/output chart, and a good price series? Then we can see how much of the price variation is explained by spare capacity per capita...

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.