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Japan's general election: end of one-party rule | 48 comments (48 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Can't wait (4.00 / 9)
Amazingly, the DPJ may not have enough candidates to fill all the seats they are projected to win:

DPJ facing potential shortage of candidates in proportional section > Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion

The Democratic Party of Japan, heavily favored in a series of pre-election polls, is facing the prospect of having to give up some of the seats it is expected to win in Sunday's lower house election. This may happen if the party scores a big enough win to secure seats for more than the number of candidates it has fielded under the proportional representation system, in which seats are allocated according to the share of votes a political party has garnered.

``It would be a waste but there's nothing we can do about it,'' an official of the main opposition party said Friday. The voter preference shown in opinion polls is beyond the expectations of the party, which has put a record 59 people on the proportional representation voting list for House of Representatives seats. The odds are increasing that all of them could secure seats along with those with ``double candidacies'' listed in both single-seat constituencies and proportional representation blocks.

My concern is that, like the anti-LDP coalition led by Hosokawa and Ozawa in the early 1990's, this defeat of the LDP will only be temporary and eventually will recede to give way again to the status quo ante.

Do you see any indications that this time the change will be more permanent?  Will the DPJ's victory be imposing enough to overcome huge obstacles and inertia in the Japanese government apparatus to make changes sought for by the Japanese public?  Or have the LDP's blunders been so great that mere consistent competence be enough to secure the long-term political viability of the DPJ?

The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion, but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence.

by marco on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 01:07:51 AM EST
Re: Can't wait (4.00 / 8)
A victory of this scale would stablize politics for a while, and Hatoyama will be premier for the next 4 years, I suspect. As for LDP, they will face an identity crisis once they lose the perception of "the Party", and may become increasingly ultra-nationalistic.

I would submit that this change should have happened in 2001 when LDP was no longer considered a party of valuable policy and experience. Koizumi prolonged its life a bit longer than necessary.

I will become a patissier, God willing.

by tuasfait on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 07:21:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Undermining potential Japanese nationalism (4.00 / 3)
tuasfait: and may become increasingly ultra-nationalistic.

All the more reason to pray for the success of the DPJ's policies.

The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion, but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence.

by marco on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 07:24:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Election form (4.00 / 3)
DPJ facing potential shortage of candidates in proportional section > Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion
Out of the 480 lower house seats, 300 are elected from single-seat districts and the remaining 180 by proportional representation in 11 regional blocks. Under the electoral system, each voter casts two ballots--one to choose a single-seat candidate and the other to choose a political party or group from the proportional representation block.

So - if I am reading this right - 300 first-past-the-post seats and 180 in a seperate proportional election (as opposed to the combined system they use in Germany).

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 08:11:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Election form (none / 1)
Based on Wikipedia, it does seem so. (Hungary has a somewhat similar system.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 09:28:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Can't wait (4.00 / 10)
From the scattered bits of news and whatnot that I get, I have had the impression that, for the past few years, the LDP has been in serious dissaray internally, and has been flailing about, lacking a real idea as to where to go or what to do.  Their "reform" agenda has been largely rejected as people became aware of what it meant (many, MANY Japanese people I've talked to have been rather displeased with how Japan is no longer as egalitarian as it used to be, and they KNOW this has been deliberate policy), and they haven't come up with anything else - except, tentatively, nationalism.  But even that isn't very popular.

So, nail in the LDP's coffin?  Who knows.

More locally, the competition is between Jabba the Hut (so he looks on his campaign posters), son of the man who built the Aqua Line and thereby cursed the city I live in, Kisarazu, and between Young Fist Pump Man. Unfortunately, that's all I can say about them.

by Zwackus on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 11:03:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Can't wait (none / 1)
My concern is that, like the anti-LDP coalition led by Hosokawa and Ozawa in the early 1990's, this defeat of the LDP will only be temporary and eventually will recede to give way again to the status quo ante.

Wasn't that what everybody expected in Canada when Harper won in 2006?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Aug 29th, 2009 at 11:35:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Japan's general election: end of one-party rule | 48 comments (48 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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