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I think you've missed the wider point (remarkably, since this is your diary! and thank you for posting it)

There is a huge, global problem emerging : how to insure / reinsure against increasing risks due to climate change.

That rapid climate change is happening is not controversial. That it is overwhelmingly destructive in its net effects has not escaped insurers.

That hurricane activity has not increased in the Carribean / Atlantic in the past few years, is something that has surprised, mildly, many people who keep up with climate science.  It's not controversial that warmer sea is correlated with more intense hurricanes, and it's not controversial that the Carribean has been warmer in the past few years. But weather, and hurricane prediction in particular, is not simple. I don't think that the re-insurers will have been more than mildly surprised either. They are, after all, used to provisioning risks that finally don't occur.

In any case, if for you, this phenomenon of an over-provisioned risk informs the wider question of reinsurance and climate change, and brings you to the opinion that climate-change risks should not be provisioned, then I fear you are falling victim to the "cry wolf" phenomenon.

Meanwhile, in Asia, storm intensity and damage has spiked in recent years. Perhaps it's lucky for them that they have less well-developed insurance industries, since these might well have worsened the damage, as they seem to have done in the USA.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 2nd, 2010 at 07:18:58 AM EST
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