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if for you, this phenomenon of an over-provisioned risk informs the wider question of reinsurance and climate change, and brings you to the opinion that climate-change risks should not be provisioned, then I fear you are falling victim to the "cry wolf" phenomenon.

I'd appreciate it if you could either stop projecting your own thesis onto my writings, or point me out the specific sentence where I write that particular opinion.

The focus was on American hurricanes. You're welcome to address this wider question if you want to.

eurogreen:

That hurricane activity has not increased in the Carribean / Atlantic in the past few years, is something that has surprised, mildly, many people who keep up with climate science.

And yet it wasn't for people who kept up with the scientific literature on this subject and were well aware of the considerable spread in uncertainty and the lack of statistical significance for the data available. I've long argued at ET that the reliance on doom scenarios for climate poster subjects (like hurricanes) could come back to haunt people who frequently touted the worst-case scenario, and for a number of climate subjects (like hurricanes), this is practically what has happened over the past few years, and may well have led to a declining public belief in the urgency to address the anthropogenic contributions to climate change.

How (re)insurance companies provision against catastrophic risk, including hurricanes, should be based on proper data analysis. Yet for the (Atlantic) hurricane segment there isn't much scientific data with a significant trend (at best, a hint of one), there isn't yet a reliable prediction model on which (re)insurance companies can actually rely on.

That is all. What this means for this wider question of provisioning for global catastrophic risk, and what the state is of the science on which that perception of risk is based, I've no idea. The science could be more certain. It could be less certain. It could be the same. You're welcome to pitch in from here.

by Nomad on Tue Nov 2nd, 2010 at 07:31:37 PM EST
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