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Increasing trend in losses by hurricane damage, increasing premium. Increased uncertainty and confidence interval, increasing premium. And I'm sure that range has also been quantified by the industry, and it may have changed over the years. All fine.

Except that there were public claims of a significance of trend in hurricane losses, not on confidence intervals or uncertain modelling.

If people come back with arguments that the uncertainty was bigger, that's all fine - but it doesn't excuse anyone to claim something which has not been proven, and particularly when it's being done by people working in an industry that may benefit.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 3rd, 2010 at 08:49:39 AM EST
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