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You're right. It's not a financing plan but a projection how financing could [ideally?] play out in the next ten years. Interesting to see that Nuremberg-Erfurt is to receive money till 2020. Additionally, the outcome of the haggling round each year in Fulda (March/April) is unforeseeable.

Nuremberg-Erfurt and Erfurt-Leipzig together still need 6 billion, Nuremberg-Erfurt ~4 billion (numerous sources say 4+2 billion of investment left but the document says ~5 billion total. Are my numbers wrong?). They would have to get nearly all the money in the next 7 years to go into service 2017. I'm not sure the rest of the country would like that ;-). 2040 is of course very speculative and probably wrong. No one knows what will happen beyond 2020. But seeing as Nuremberg-Erfurt can practically receive only ~200m or 300m max every year at least till 2020, plus it's chasing the tail of cost inflation, it's rather unlikely that it will be finished in this decade. 2017 is apparently impossible for technical reasons alone - construction orders didn't go out soon enough in 2008.

If the predicaments of energy (peak oil) and finance hit in this decade and get progressively worse, I wonder whether VDE8 will ever get finished.

Hopefully this is all the mad cow talking.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Tue Oct 5th, 2010 at 12:37:40 PM EST
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Since this is about financing, it's hard to say what the numbers until 2020 mean -- it could include deferred depreciation charges and interests.

For the most current cost estimates, see the 2010 report on German Unity projects (pdf!), where the total project costs are estimated at 5.2+2.75 billion, and the money still to spend at the end of 2009 is put at 4+1.4 billion.

Note that the 2.7 billion total for the Ebensfeld-Erfurt high-speed line itself in your link is line with the cost named in this parliamentary reply. The rest of the cost estimate includes the €0.3 billion Nürnberg-Fürth upgrade, some other works and planning, and the one part still without a financing agreement, the four-tracking and upgrading of the Fürth-Bamberg-Ebensfeld section (the 2017 finishing date is only for the Ebensfeld-Erfurt high-speed line). (The 1.95 billion total for Erfurt-Gröbers is also okay if we consider that the rest includes Leipzig-Gröbers, already in operation.) So I'd estimate that the money still to be spent on Ebensfeld-Erfurt alone is about 2 billion.

Methinks a further long delay of the Fürth-Ebensfeld section is more likely than not paying already contracted superstructure and track contractors to the extent that they stop work, or a halt in contracting trackwork; so methinks any further delay will be only a year or two.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 5th, 2010 at 03:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
deferred depreciation charges and interests

I meant to write deferrend federal support [i.e. what pays for loans taken up by DB] and interests.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 6th, 2010 at 03:06:39 AM EST
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