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Therefore it can be concluded that anthropogenic climate change so far has not had a significant impact on losses from natural disasters.

... is a little bit truncated. It continues :

Considerable uncertainties remain in some of these studies, as exposure and vulnerability that influence risk can only be roughly accounted for over 15 time. In particular the potential effects of past risk reduction efforts on the loss increase are often ignored, because data that can be used to correct for these effects is not available.

To translate : This study (and the others quoted) show quite clearly that the major driver in the well-documented increase in weather-related insurance payouts is socio-economic change :  for example, new construction in flood plains and on steep hillsides is vulnerable to flooding and landslides. This phenomenon is well-explored in this study, and the others quoted in the diary. HOWEVER, the opposite phenomenon -- risk reduction -- is entirely unexamined in this study.

For example, I would be very surprised if protection against extreme climate events had not been greatly improved in western Europe over the past 20 years. This would, all else being equal, result in a lessening of insured damage... and the data shows no such lessening. Perhaps this trend counteracts completely, or partially, a climate-change signal.

But we don't know, based on the scientific studies presented here.

However, I would be very surprised indeed if Munich Re were not interested in this phenomenon, unexamined by the scientists. They have a huge database, much of it probably proprietary and therefore unavailable for scientific research, and a lower standard of proof than the scientists.

So when you say

Unfortunately, Munich Re seems to frequently suffer from cognitive dissonance between their PR department and their own considerably qualified science group

... I  find it quite likely that there is, in fact, no contradiction. They may well know things, as insurers, that are not publishable science, but are actionable knowledge.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Nov 18th, 2010 at 04:44:47 PM EST

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