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From the executive summary:
Iraq accounts for a  large share of the increase in OPEC output, commensurate with its large resource base, its crude oil output catching up with Iran's by around 2015 and its total output reaching 7 mb/d by 2035.
I'll let you judge how realistic this is.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if Iraq's capacity reached that level, why on earth would they pump oil in sufficient quantity to depress the price?

Producers have every interest in restricting supply at the level necessary to maximise their resource rent, and moreover, while dollars yield zero per cent, they have no reason to exchange valuable oil in the ground for dollars other than for necessary expenditure.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would 50,000 US troops have anything to do with the answer?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 05:31:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ummhhh ... well, no, it wouldn't. The troops are going to help defend the oil fields just as fiercely if the price is going up as if the price is stable.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 11:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the response was to the question of the rate at which the Iraqi government might choose to pump, or be able to pump the oil and, therefore, the price which they would receive for it, as well as to whom they might sell the oil. Call me a cynic, but I suspect that the continued presence of the US troops has something to do with those questions as well.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 09:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no doubt that there are plenty of interests who would like the presence of US troops to influence the decision of how fast to pump, but there doesn't seem to be much of a credible threat that the US could make regarding any negative consequences to the Iraqi government if they do not pump as fast as the US would like.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But who in the US Government will admit that? Surely no one who wants to be SeriousTT, at least not for several more years.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... of ability and willingness to lie to the American public in the service of oil industry interests?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US troops actually slow investment, because as long as they are there there will be uncertainty as to the legitimacy of the legal framework for oil investments, and oil companies are unlikely to invest real money unless they are reasonably sure that the legal framework can last a couple dozen years - and that won't happen prior to the departure of the US troops as no government under them is legitimate.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is another reason the "to be developed" portion of the graph is fantasy. Even if the US accelerates its draw-down of overseas troops, Iraq will be towards the end UNLESS the oil if flowing at an increasing rate and the Iraqis seem happy -- failing a serious collapse of US power or the even more remote possibility of a significant change in US politics. My guess is that we will leave Iraq only when the actual reserves, along with production, are seriously in decline or the US can no longer manage to pay for the occupation.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:11:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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