...is that they don't even try to pretend that existing fields plus those in magic pony land add up to increased production. Which they would do if the data gave them the feeblest leg to stand on. They are probably showing the most favourable 97.5%-ile of the estimated distribution of outcomes.

I'd love to be a fly on their wall.

You can call it an honest mistake in that they didn't try to hide their tracks. Though maybe it's just a feeling of impunity.

Had they put the "to be developed or found" on the top of the other quantities it would have been difficult to realise that the amount was just so that the total amount of crude oil is a constant.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010