Oil plateaus | 159 comments (159 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 4)

Looking for a picture for someone tonight, I came across some old graphs that I'd knocked together for a diary on here made from an earlier version of the same data,taking out one of the lines that had been drawn however I only have to altered ones not the original, direct from IEA ones and was wondering how the old graphs compare to the current ones. (but for that of course we'd need the originals

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:13:59 PM EST

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 0)

So if anyone can remember what diary it was , would be handy

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:16:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 3)

Comparing the two graphs makes the manipulation even more blatant.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 04:43:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 3)

The difference between the two graphs is the "yet to be found" resources, which would have to amount to around 20 mb/d in 2030...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 07:23:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 0)

I know the full graphs were originally in the guardian. But im not sure when and i dont know what slice i extracted to produce the version i posted. It might be that that slice was the yet to be discovered bit. They would be at least a year ago and they may well have been expexting us to forget theyd already produced this graph.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:19:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 0)

What more can you remember about the diary? Did you write it? If not, do you remember who did?

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by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 09:46:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

Well the guardian article from last year was this one

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower | Environment | The Guardian

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 0)

and the related diary was this one

European Tribune - The Peak Oil Whistle

This morning I woke up, went shaving and then jumped for a quick shower as usual; at 7 o'clock I tunned the radio from Radio France to the local news radio in time for the first morning program. One of the opening news-bits seemed to have been edited by one of my colleagues at TheOilDrum.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 3)

So this was the original:

Migeru:

This is the IEA's own projections:

(Really a comment that fits under the comment were ceebs found the diary, but pictures best goes as pretty high level in order not disrupt the layout for those showing threaded comments.)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

I've not split out just the pink slice, but looking at it, doesn't it show an accelerating rate of oil discoveries?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

I already said back then:

I'd say "fields yet to be found" looks completely massaged to me.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 12:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 2)

Yes it does. We'll need to find more, so we will. Isn't that basic economics?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 01:01:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

no, an accelerating rate of oil discoveries would produce a curve or "trumphet" in the graph- the widening is the compounding of production from new discoveries from year to year. (assume one new well per year - year four will have four times the production from "new" wells. that doesnt mean four wells were discovered in year four.

by Thomas on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:25:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

I thought that a slightly curved shape in the old graph was what I was seeing

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oil plateaus | 159 comments (159 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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