From different cables I think it is pretty clear that there is facesaving going on, everyone and their grandma knows that there is no victory in Afghanistan. But hey, lots of people appear to believe that the US 'surged' to winning the war in Iraq, so maybe the same will happen in AfPak.

1. Proclaim surge (increasing troops are not really necessary, do photo-ops with fresh troops circulated in).

2. Pay insurgents to pose as awakening councils.

3. Pull the troops out of shooting range.

4. Declare win and tell the media that nothing interesting will happen here any more.

The civil war rages on but only gets media when really big bombs explode.

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