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Predicting what the weather is going to do a week from today is impossible so trying to give an accurate forecast for the next ten years is rather brave.  

However ...

Global Climate Change ... or should I write Global Weather Change? ... driven by Global Warming is upon us.  The loss of arctic sea ice has destabilized expectations about the North Atlantic Oscillation:

<blockquote"... the Icelandic low - which normally sits between to the west of Iceland between there and Greenland - has appeared regularly to the east of Iceland and so allowed exceptionally cold air into Europe from the Arctic.</blockquote>

Cold dry air from the arctic meeting warm moist air from the Gulf Stream and Azores means snow.  And lots of it as long as the Icelandic low is to the east of Iceland.  When that low moves or dissipates temperatures should rebound to the "old normal" implying all that snow is going to melt.  

Melting snow plus the old normal rainfall says, "think flooding."  Certainly those who live in a hundred year flood plain should sit down and seriously consider how they can or should respond to a flood.  The urgency drops as one moves to a thousand year flood plain but even then I'd spend 15 minutes, or so, sketching a response plan.  Trust me on this:  IF it happens trying to figure out what to do AS it happens is too late.  

The Fens of England are certainly at risk for flooding.  The northern European plain is also a potential Ground Zero from Amsterdam down to Le Treport, France.  Other 'At Risk' areas are outside my knowledge.  Although I suspect the Thames Valley is a prime candidate; those tidal dams protecting London aren't going to do a bit of good for water flowing down to the Channel!

Well, unless the goal is to turn London into a lake.  :-)

I know I'm a bit of a worrywart, why I'm such a good Emergency Planner.  (LOL)  But it seems sensible, to a worrywart, to at least think about flooding and do some planning and preparation.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2010 at 11:38:31 AM EST
I recently persuaded a friend that moving to a low lying fen area was a bad idea for exactly that reason

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Dec 21st, 2010 at 11:42:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good for you.

In the old days, when people had to live near their fields, living in a flood plain made a little bit of sense.  Those areas are the best farmland, usually, having nice deep black topsoil that is easily worked and produced an abundance of crops.

Now it's dumb.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2010 at 12:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And what you told him is

'Keep to the Fen Causeway'

Now I know!

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Dec 21st, 2010 at 01:53:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
Certainly those who live in a hundred year flood plain should sit down and seriously consider how they can or should respond to a flood.

Some have thought how to prevent flooding...

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Tue Dec 21st, 2010 at 06:32:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depending on how much rain falls on the snow, could be looking at another 1953 situation, with the water coming from the east, instead of the west, this time.  

The Netherlands is famous for having excellent sea-flooding planning, preparation, and defenses.  River flooding?  You tell me.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2010 at 09:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...indeed that was the tenor during the 'once-a-century' floods in the nineties:

River Rhine Floods 1995 | Background Information

...In February 1995, the Rhine and its tributaries (the Meuse and the Mosel), burst their banks in France Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. Large areas of the Low Countries (Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands) were flooded and many major towns were threatened.

The Dutch have defended themselves against the sea for centuries by an elaborate network of dykes 2,500 km (1,500 miles) long but, this time the floodwaters came from the rivers, from water flowing as a result of heavy rainfall in the Ardennes and a flood of melted snow in the Alps. For two years running, levels of flooding have occurred that, statistically, would normally happen only once a century. The flood waters swamped farmland, much of it in the polder regions, where the land had been reclaimed from estuaries and river basins.

...however, that flood led to measures:

Water Conflict and Cooperation/Rhine River Basin - WaterWiki.net

In 1995 in the Netherlands, some 200,000 people had to be evacuated because of imminent flood risks from the rivers Rhine and Meuse. Within months a lex specialis (special law) was passed to construct or improve about 750 km of dikes and levies before the year 2000.

...and Nomad's link was about further measures for the future, both in relation to seas and rivers, and specifically mentioning floodplains. In addition, the floodplain issue is specifically addressed by the separate Room for the River plan.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Dec 22nd, 2010 at 03:21:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Emphasis added:

For two years running, levels of flooding have occurred that, statistically, would normally happen only once a century.

And if the coin lands "heads" it MUST land "tails" in the next flip to Obey the Laws of Probability.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 22nd, 2010 at 01:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, ask anyone in a casino.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 22nd, 2010 at 02:28:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although I understand your sentiment of frustration, I'm not sure if that is just a goof stemming from mistranslation or unfamiliarity to the subject. The snippet is taken from a physical geography site; not a branch of study particularly rich in mathematics. In the Netherlands, the field of water management is dominated by civil engineers and mathematicians.

I do know that the Delta Committee and others have adopted a probabilistic approach, and that probabilistic methodology now provides the baseline for evaluating dyke safety - which was something I was doing earlier this year. It also is estimated that some 25% of all primary dykes currently still fail the safety test - which in the next round in 2011 will become even more stringent. This does not create major problems that have not been seen before (see recent Maas flooding) - and as DoDo writes upthread upgrades are in the work at all levels.

After the Delta Committee a National Water Plan was released in 2009 by the Balkenende government, which adopts major recommendations of the Committee - including plans for providing major rivers with space for large variations in river discharge, whereby the highest discharge scenario is taken as the baseline, and then a 5 - 10% extra is added.

After operating at the consultancy side in this particular branch, I have enough anecdotes that point at some flaws in the present regulatory framework of the Dutch waterboards, however, I have no doubts that the conservative and stringent safety conditions that need to be adhered to continue to make the Dutch safety system against flooding simply the safest in the world.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2010 at 06:25:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Far be it for an American to tell the Dutch how to run their business.  :-)  I do get - too easily, perhaps - annoyed when long range planners naively apply Statistics and Probability.  Bit of boring personal history is involved, as well.

The Dutch planners need to junk history and do a re-think.  They need to take a hard look at what is going on as well as consider how to prepare for a relatively rapid, as such things go, sea level rise of 3 meters, conceivably more, over the next 20 years.  Expensive?  Yes.  But less so than having half of the Netherlands under water.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 23rd, 2010 at 05:24:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
consider how to prepare for a relatively rapid, as such things go, sea level rise of 3 meters, conceivably more, over the next 20 years

Report of the Delta Committee - page 24 for scenarios which are considerably worse than the IPCC scenarios.

Unless you actually mean a sea level rise of 3 meters in the coming 20 years - which is in the range of possible as the sun not rising tomorrow and therefore can't be planned for.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Fri Dec 24th, 2010 at 06:36:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the links, DoDo.  Didn't mean to tee-off on your comment.  

It's just the inability of people to understand  what Probability and Statistics mean ... and it's not THAT hard ... drives me absolutely crazy.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 22nd, 2010 at 01:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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