Arrhenius Institute last week released a very important study of future PV effect in Germany.  From the english exec sum:

The present study fills this gap. In a first part, it is qualitatively shown how the power price and the equilibrium quantity on the power exchange change with increasing PV capacities. These findings can directly be translated into shrinking revenues for operators of conventional power plants. In the second part, a quantitative analysis of the German power market is provided. Based on a fundamental model analysing 8,760 hours per year with real plant data the impact of six scenarios for the build-up of PV capacities ranging from an immediate stop of new PV installations to an additional 50 GW of PV until 2020 are studied. The effects of different PV scenarios on the whole sale power price and the total revenues (i.e., price multiplied by quantity) of all conventional power plants are calculated. For an in- cumbent operator of a coal-fired power plant, the contribution margin may decrease by more than 25% and for a new, yet to build gas-fired combined cycle power plant it may drop by more the 30%. One reason for this massive impact is the fact that PV installations produce power around noon when load and, thus, power prices as well as revenues are usually the highest in Germany. In this respect PV differs considerably from other renewable energies.

Not to mention that building an export PV industry in grey Germany has a few positive externalities.  Like already done with wind.  Imagine what Spain could do, if, as this study shows, the main stakeholders of conventional power are getting their butt's kicked.  (methinks that's what losing "contributions" means.  revenue.)

PS.  when i first came across the study last week, i was surprised to see J's merit effect mentioned.  Why i can't find the reference now is to my disgrace.

Arrhenius study here

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin