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ARD exit poll:

CDU: 34.5%
SPD: 34.5%
Greens: 12.5%
FDP: 6.5%
Left Party: 6.0%

ZDF exit poll:

SPD: 35.0%
CDU: 34.0%
Greens: 12.5%
FDP: 6.5%
Left Party: 5.5%

If that holds, congrats to dvx for his hunch!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:03:46 PM EST
With those numbers, it might just work out for a thin Red-Green majority, in which case the SPD won't sink further into identity crisis and there will be an opposition pulling the Overton Window from the left.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Alternatively, we can say it's the Greens' choice. They get to pick the next government of NRW.

Either way, the FDP got their free market-loving asses thoroughly whupped. W00T!

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:15:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Live stream here.

The head of the Greens just said that a coalition with the SPD would be her first choice.

Kraft is speaking to her supporters right now. lots of cheering.

Her message: "The SPD is back!"

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kraft just came out in favor or Red/Green.

... and she addresses her supporters with the traditional "Genossinnen und Genossen" ("comrades").

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now back to our regularly scheduled gin and tonic.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I watched RTL news. Peter Klöppel seemed depressed...

Now watching ZDF on livestream. Greens rep attacks Rüttgers hard for blaming the federal political situation for the election loss, saying that the Greens fought a campaign with local themes and doubled their votes.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we can say it's the Greens' choice.

Not necessarily, it's very thin. (Also, Özdemir made it quite clear a week ago that Red-Green is first choice.)

The ARD and ZDF seat projections at the moment give the same number of seats to CDU and SPD, but ARD's would make either of them + Greens one short of majority, ZDF's would give those combinations a majority of one. If SPD's advantage in the final count will be worth one more seat, that one seat might make out the coalition majority.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The current ARD seat projection is just the case I drew up:

SPD 67
CDU 66
Greens 24
FDP 13
Left Party 11

(Total: 181, Majority: 91, SPD+Greens = 91)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:11:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ZDF's is the same picture, but they give one overhang mandate more to CDU and SPD each.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, the translation tool doesn't work for me. However it looks like the CDU-FDP lost its majority.

Landtagswahl in NRW: Schwarz-Gelb verliert Mehrheit | tagesschau.de

Nach nur fünf Jahren an der Macht ist die Koalition aus CDU und FDP in Nordrhein-Westfalen am Ende. Bei der Landtagswahl verlor das schwarz-gelbe Bündnis unter Ministerpräsident Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) nach der Hochrechnung seine Mehrheit und kommt gemeinsam nur noch auf 41 Prozent.

But the SPD seems to have been loosing too. It seems the big winner are the Greens.

Landtagswahl in NRW: Schwarz-Gelb verliert Mehrheit | tagesschau.de

SPD verliert erneut

[Bildunterschrift: Schlechtes Ergebnis, dennoch Jubel: Wahlparty in der SPD-Zentrale in Düsseldorf ]
Auch die SPD verschlechterte sich noch einmal gegenüber ihrem Ergebnis von 2005, das mit 37,1 Prozent das schwächste für die Sozialdemokraten seit den 50er-Jahren gewesen war. Die SPD kommt der Hochrechnung zufolge auf 34,4 Prozent und liegt damit knapp hinter der CDU.

Gewinner der Wahl sind die Grünen. Sie verdoppelten gegenüber 2005 ihren Stimmenanteil fast von 6,2 auf 12,2 Prozent - das ist das beste Ergebnis, das sie je in Nordrhein-Westfalen hatten. Die Linkspartei schafft mit sechs Prozent erstmals den Einzug in den Düsseldorfer Landtag.

by Fran on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Definitely.

And right now ARD is saying that Red/Green has a 1-seat majority.

Of course, the night is still young.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They also have CDU and SPD level right now. But by past experience, the SPD shall move up again as counting progresses in the cities.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:30:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now CDU ahead by 0.2%, but seat projection still gives Red-Green a one-seat majority.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In ZDF's just released next projection, SPD remains ahead by 0.2% and Red-Green retains majority on seats, but SPD and CDU are now level on seats like in ARD's.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:05:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How big a shift in seats is this?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Current ARD and ZDF projections of vote share and (vote share in 2005):
CDU: 34.3-34.7% (44.8%)
SPD: 34.5% (37.1%)
Greens: 12.2-12.4% (6.2%)
FDP: 6.6-6.8% (6.2%)
Left Party: 5.5-5.7% (3.1%)

Current ARD and ZDF projections of seats and (seats won in 2005):
CDU: 67-68 (89)
SPD: 66-68 (74)
Greens: 24-25 (12)
FDP: 13 (12)
Left Party: 11 (0)

It's roughly proportional, its a proportional election after all, save for overhang mandates. But there is some extra shift in the seats because of the Left Party's entry into parliament.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So a loss for the SPD, too, but a definite shift to the left with the Greens and Left Party gains.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. But for the SPD it feels like a gain (and for the FDP like a loss) because of the federal elections in-between.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:01:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARD, 21:05: now they see the CDU 0.3% and one seat ahead... with that, CDU+Greens would have a majority of one.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ZDF updated its projection after 1 hour 50 minutes, they still see the SPD ahead by 0.1%, and their seat projection is unchanged.

Meanwhile, I checked the official count, which does not yet post state-wide summary, only the result of constituencies that already finished counting. Most large cities (Dortmund, Essen, Duisburg and Cologne) are still undeclared, while most rural areas declared. As the cities tend to tilt left, I still suspect the current ARD, ZDF projections (even if with correction factors) uare a bit skewed.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:07:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greens above 20% in Bielefeld and Bonn. Left Party above 10% in Düsseldorf III, and near it in -- Bielefeld. Now that in Bielefeld, is not a usual correlation.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Düsseldorf Duisburg. Also the place where the CDU got least (21.2%).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:25:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Others" are 6.5% at the moment -- the ZDF talking head just said that Pirates are 2%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:24:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll be interested to see how many votes go to Pro NRW, the right-wing xeno party.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:49:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There also seems to be a shift to the left in the national Parliament in Berlin. The CDU is losing its majority.

Schwarz-Gelb verliert Mehrheit im Bundesrat | tagesschau.de

Die Niederlage für Schwarz-Gelb bei der Landtagswahl in Nordrhein-Westfalen hat auch für die Bundesregierung weitreichende Folgen. Union und FDP haben jetzt keine Mehrheit mehr in der Länderkammer.

[Bildunterschrift: Nicht nur in Düsseldorf, auch im Bundesrat in Berlin gibt es neue politische Mehrheitsverhältnisse. ]
Bislang verfügten die sieben von Union und FDP geführten Bundesländer über 37 der 69 Stimmen in der Länderkammer. Die in der Regel erforderliche absolute Mehrheit liegt bei 35 Stimmen. Mit der Abwahl der CDU/FDP-Landesregierung in Düsseldorf verliert Schwarz-Gelb die sechs Stimmen des bevölkerungsreichsten Bundeslandes und kommt nur noch auf 31 Sitze.

by Fran on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:33:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The upper house of the federal parliament, that is.

The Bundesrat is composed of representatives of the state governments. That is, if there is a coalition government in a state, the state's representatives will have to represent all coalition parties, which means abstaining in case of conflict.

It's not CDU but CDU/CSU+FDP that is losing a majority: with the representatives of states with CDU+SPD, CDU+Greens and CDU+FDP+Greens governments, the CDU/CSU will continue to influence the vote of a big majority in the Bundesrat, regardless of what coalition forms in NRW now.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Upps, your right, my mistake I meant the upperHouse and federal just couldn't think of the english words. :-(
by Fran on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:48:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News - German coalition 'suffers key regional poll loss'

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party and its coalition allies have been defeated in regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, exit polls suggest.

If confirmed, this could see Mrs Merkel's national coalition lose its majority in the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat.

The campaign has been overshadowed by the government's decision to contribute to a huge rescue package for Greece.

Meanwhile many cities in NRW are on the brink of bankruptcy.

by Fran on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany Is Doomed.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:24:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... and remember that it was already the case that Europe.Is.Doomed.

This therefore of course implies that Europe.is.SO.FRACKING.Doomed.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Merkel's coalition suffers defeat in key state election | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 09.05.2010
Exit polls show that Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right coalition parties have suffered huge losses in elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, robbing her government of a majority in the upper house of parliament. 

Exit polls by public broadcaster ARD showed Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won 34.3 percent of the vote, down 10 percentage points from the last vote in 2005 and their worst showing in the state ever. The center-left Social Democrats (SPD) didn't do much better with some 34.4 percent of the vote. 

However, with the market-friendly Free Democrats, the CDU's current coalition partner, coming in with only 6.6 percent of the vote, the SPD could form a coalition with the Greens. According to the exit polls, the Greens almost doubled their showing from the last state election and secured 12.5 percent. The Left Party won 6 percent.

It was the first test for the Chancellor Angela Merkel's six-month-old coalition CDU and FDP government. A victory for the SPD and the Greens would cost the ruling government its majority in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament which represents the 16 federal states.

by Fran on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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