You are right that polling is not very accurate. Although the sample size is not small (about 2,000), almost always only half of them are willing to respond.

There are other factors playing in the Japanese media, in my view. First, conservative media (which control 2 terrestrial TV channels) were determined to do whatever they can to throw out Hatoyama. They kept making the corruption charges, which was initially brought by Asahi, the paper with a strong tie with the prosecution.

Second, after 60 years of one-party rule, there is a strong network (and the country is small) among those who believe are important among LDP politicians, bureaucracy, business, and media. The task of a political writer in a major media outlet has always been to be a friend of a (LDP) politician to gain inside access, and they even had some influence over the policy.  It was a cosy, interesting job, and I suspect they all miss those days which suddenly ended last year. Third, there is a pro-Washington group whose asset is ties with those in power there. Their latest version was brought up during Bush.

Despite their talk of democracy, they want to remain in the comfortable role they played when LDP was in power. Hatoyama, who began inviting non-major media to governmental press conferences was no friend of them.

I will become a patissier, God willing.