The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
It's basically incredible that this is happening with unemployment in the euro area still rising, and only slight labor market progress in the US. But don't we need to worry about government debt? Yes -- but slashing spending while the economy is still deeply depressed is both an extremely costly and quite ineffective way to reduce future debt. Costly, because it depresses the economy further; ineffective, because by depressing the economy, fiscal contraction now reduces tax receipts. A rough estimate right now is that cutting spending by 1 percent of GDP raises the unemployment rate by .75 percent compared with what it would otherwise be, yet reduces future debt by less than 0.5 percent of GDP....Yet the conventional wisdom now is that these countries must nonetheless cut -- not because the markets are currently demanding it, not because it will make any noticeable difference to their long-run fiscal prospects, but because we think that the markets might demand it (even though they shouldn't) sometime in the future. Utter folly posing as wisdom. Incredible.
But don't we need to worry about government debt? Yes -- but slashing spending while the economy is still deeply depressed is both an extremely costly and quite ineffective way to reduce future debt. Costly, because it depresses the economy further; ineffective, because by depressing the economy, fiscal contraction now reduces tax receipts. A rough estimate right now is that cutting spending by 1 percent of GDP raises the unemployment rate by .75 percent compared with what it would otherwise be, yet reduces future debt by less than 0.5 percent of GDP....Yet the conventional wisdom now is that these countries must nonetheless cut -- not because the markets are currently demanding it, not because it will make any noticeable difference to their long-run fiscal prospects, but because we think that the markets might demand it (even though they shouldn't) sometime in the future.
Utter folly posing as wisdom. Incredible.
by Frank Schnittger - Mar 22 2 comments
by Oui - Mar 16 16 comments
by Oui - Mar 15 5 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Mar 9 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Mar 14 14 comments
by Oui - Mar 271 comment
by Oui - Mar 2710 comments
by Oui - Mar 22
by Oui - Mar 2211 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Mar 222 comments
by Oui - Mar 1944 comments
by Oui - Mar 1739 comments
by gmoke - Mar 17
by Oui - Mar 1616 comments
by Oui - Mar 1537 comments
by Oui - Mar 155 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Mar 1414 comments
by Oui - Mar 134 comments
by Oui - Mar 128 comments
by Oui - Mar 1112 comments
by Oui - Mar 1058 comments
by Oui - Mar 1015 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Mar 93 comments
by Oui - Mar 99 comments