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Russian perspective on I/P conflict | 24 comments (24 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (4.00 / 6)
European Tribune - Russian perspective on I/P conflict

The final part of the article is more open to criticism, at least I don't see immediate threat of big war in Middle East and I attribute the gloomy shades of Lukyanov's conclusion only to timing of his writing, the article appeared on June 3, just days after Israeli raid.

I believe the sense will eventually prevail on all sides, but we have to prepare for a rough ride ahead.

I would share Lukyanov's analysis and have my doubts about your optimism.  Israel is quite capable of Bombing Iran and expecting the US to give tacit support.  Obama would be incensed because it will put his Iraqi and Afghani withdrawals at risk, but what can he do to stop it, or limit the damage if Israel does Bomb?  And Europe will wring its hands as usual.

So it's business as usual then, for the only nuclear power in the Middle East.  (I would count Pakistan as being more engaged with the India/China/Afghanistan region and effectively outside the I/P theatre of war).

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 04:01:56 PM EST
Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (4.00 / 4)
Well I dont see how its going to happen now

For one thing, for an air attack to work, you'd have to fly though US or Turkish controlled airspace. US controlled is out as it would disrupt the US's Iraq and Afghanistan situation (And the US general in charge has been pushing out not-so-coded messages about this) And since a week ago the Turkish military aren't in a position to allow overflights of their territory.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 08:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (none / 1)
Does Israel not have Missiles capable of hitting Iran?  And would the US shoot down Israeli bombers that defied their control of Iraqi airspace?  I have a lot more faith in Israeli ruthlessness than I have in Obama's ability to call their bluff...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 08:41:10 PM EST
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Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (4.00 / 3)
Its not that just bombers, you're going to have to stage Tankers out over closer to the Iranian border. This can't be done without the apparent permission of the US. If that happens then instantly a large part of the middle east becomes too unfriendly to run the support and supply of the Iraq and Afghanistan operations out of. I'm sure that the generals will have informed him of this, and although he may vacillate (And for the right I think its a no win situation for him, he'll either be painted as someone who is standing up for Muslims against America if he stops Israel, or he'll be painted as someone who betrayed the army if he lets the attack go ahead) I do really think he has no real choice but to stop any Israeli attack, unless he wants to see NATO retreating over the same bridge the Russians left over 20 years ago

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 09:18:27 PM EST
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Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (4.00 / 2)
Oh and from What I can see, they have missiles that can hit Iran in a general way, but nothing accurate enough  to do the job without Nuclear warheads

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 09:51:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (4.00 / 3)
Report: Israel to deploy nuclear-armed submarines off Iran coast

By Haaretz Service

Sunday Times quotes IDF official saying the 3 German-made long range submarines will gather intelligence, act as deterrent and potentially land Mossad agents.

Israel is to deploy three submarines equipped with nuclear cruise missiles in the Persian Gulf, the Sunday Times reported on Sunday.

According to the Times report, one submarine had been sent over Israeli fears that ballistic missiles developed by Iran, and in the possession of Syria and Hezbollah, could be used to hit strategic sites within Israel, such as air bases and missile launchers.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-israel-to-deploy-nuclear-armed-submarines-off-i ran-coast-1.293005




by shergald on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 10:10:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Russian perspective on I/P conflict (none / 1)
NTI: Submarine: Israel Capabilities
Some reports suggest that Israel has adapted Harpoon cruise missiles, which have a range of 130 kilometers, to carry an indigenously developed nuclear warhead and guidance system, though other experts argue that such modifications to a Harpoon missile are not feasible.[6] Others believe that Israel has developed an indigenous cruise missile with a range of 320 kilometers that is believed to be a version of Rafael Armament Development Authority's Popeye turbo cruise missile.[7]


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jun 9th, 2010 at 08:08:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Russian perspective (4.00 / 3)
I'm inclined to agree.  Israel would need the US to at least stay out of the way in order to attack Iran, and I can't imagine the US military allowing that, given what the generals have been saying.

That said, it wouldn't be the first time we've put Israel above our own soldiers, so who knows?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Jun 9th, 2010 at 07:42:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Russian perspective on I/P conflict | 24 comments (24 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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