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But that's also an argument against your extrapolation.

I guess you can always do a moving average.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jul 2nd, 2010 at 12:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My 'extrapolation' was merely intended to give a picture of what last year's growth rate means relative to total consumption, i.e. that it is not insignificant but even greater growth would be desirable.

Regarding real long-term trends, I would agree that a logistic curve fits both emergence/maturing and phaseout best, but Marchetti curves seem too simplicistic. In Luís's diary, the oil shocks are named as explanation for deviation; on one hand, methinks a lot more reasons can throw development off the Marchetti track (rule changes being one, see wind power in Denmark), on the other hand, I rather doubt that all significant energy modes will peak at the same market penetration level (50%).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jul 2nd, 2010 at 03:35:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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