Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
I question the suggestion that the Lib Dems look finished. It is not unusual for Lib Dem poll support to slump between elections. Past experience suggests that support grows with the added exposure of a general election campaign.

Of course this is the first time the Lib Dems have been in government, so we do not know if past experience of how their vote tends to fluctuate will be a useful guide to the future.

It would be unwise to think that the depressed poll ratings, likely in the next few years, will determine where the Lib Dems are as the 2015 election approaches.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 08:10:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Personally I believe the LibDems are finished.

they enjoyed a certain level of support for being a non-socialist alternative to the Labour party. Irrespective of their MPs sympathies, much of the membership is surely rooted on the old Liberal Party who have been horrified by the eagerness with which the leadership have enabled the ultra-thatcherite economics of George Osborne.

If they could have extracted a genuine commitment to  proportional representation, it might have been defensible. But the vague promise of a referendum on a demonstrably crap version of pr, which the tories have promised to bitterly oppose, simply isn't good enough.

The liberals are neither an alternative nor complementary to the conservatives, but they are a soft left alternative to the authoritarian streak in Labour. All those who supported them on that basis are gonna run a mile from them next time, especially as miliband jr is making useful noises about ending the illiberal tendencies of NuLab.

It's gonna be a wipeout.


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 08:32:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My impression is that most Liberal Democrat members are cautiously optimistic, that things will turn out OK in the end. Perhaps we are delusional, but time will tell.

The party and its predecessors spent about 60 years refusing to answer the question about whether they preferred Labour or the Tories. Now, at least for this Parliament, Clegg has answered the question. This deliberate strategic decision sacrifices some of the  tactical flexibility, which allowed the Lib Dems to appeal to a wide range of potential voters.

There is some risk that the parties support will be shredded, in the way it was in the years between the World Wars when some cried left, some right and others forward. This has not happened, so far, at the Parliamentary level.

Clegg needs to preserve sufficient independence that the Lib Dems do not become a minor ally of the Conservatives, wholly dependent upon keeping on good terms with them for political survival, like the Liberal Nationals were.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 11:09:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen:
If they could have extracted a genuine commitment to  proportional representation, it might have been defensible. But the vague promise of a referendum on a demonstrably crap version of pr, which the tories have promised to bitterly oppose, simply isn't good enough.

If they wiun the referendum and get changes to the election law they will have delivered systemic change that should increase their seats even if they loose votes.

If they loose, then right after the referendum would probably be the best time for the lib-dems to pull the plug on this government (and thus, I presume, trigger elections). If they need a reason they can always cite how mean the tories were in the campaign and find some promise tories reneged on.

Even with one of the crappier versions of pr, I would guess reform would get more votes then the libdem got in the last general election (if not, someone has not done their polling). When Tories and Labor congratulate each other on defeating the evils of equal representation is precisely the right moment for the libdems to try to rally those that just got voted down to "vote again for pr, and this time we will win!"

Played right, a general election coming on the heels of a referendum on the election systems, were tories and labor collaborated in the campaign, should give the libdems a fantastic opportunity.

This all assuming their will be a referendum.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 05:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that AV is not a proportional representation system. It is estimated that the Lib Dems will win a few more seats than under first past the post, but still nowhere near fair representation.

The value of AV is as a wedge to break the status quo. It is hoped that at some point in the next generation we could move to a more proportional system. On the other hand if AV became a new norm and there is no further movement, then the House of Commons and the political system will not be much altered.

It is hopeful that Ed Miliband has confirmed he supports AV and also did not go out of his way to attack the Lib Dems in his leader's conference speech. Perhaps he thinks that we are entering a period of coalition politics, so it is not wise to annoy any potential coalition partner.

I doubt the coalition will be brought to a premature end. It would not be in the Lib Dems interest to get a reputation as unreliable coalition partners or to annoy the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems are in the unusual position that they could easily form a coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives. Most smaller parties in most democracies are almost guaranteed allies for the largest centre-right or centre-left party. Preserving flexibility is therefore greatly to the advantage of the Lib Dems, but does mean they are not wholly predictable. This upsets people (like partisans of other parties or journalists) who would prefer a simpler political landscape.

by Gary J on Wed Sep 29th, 2010 at 06:29:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gary J:
I doubt the coalition will be brought to a premature end.

I thought it was in the nature of British politics to end terms prematurely and call an election when the government (or in this case a part of the government) deems it appropriate. Is this a misunderstanding on my part?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Sep 30th, 2010 at 03:54:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, you have understood British political history. However when the fixed term Parliaments bill gets through Parliament the chances of an early election will be greatly reduced.

It is precisely to avoid one coalition party betraying the coalition, by forcing an early election, that the coalition agreement included fixed term Parliaments.

by Gary J on Fri Oct 1st, 2010 at 07:30:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that the larger party will promise electoral reform, and then find a way to renege on it.

I'm talking from bitter experience (PS/Verts in France). I hope I am wrong with respect to the UK : perhaps the Conservatives have more integrity than the PS (not counting on that), but more to the point, perhaps the Libs have the power / the guts to force it through (after reflection, I'm not counting on that either)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Oct 1st, 2010 at 09:38:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At the AV referendum next May it is likely that most Conservatives will vote no and most Lib Dem supporters will vote yes. That was understood to be the position when the coalition agreement was negotiated.

The key to the result is likely to be the way Labour splits. Many Labour activists and politicians love first past the post. It gives them more power than a fairer voting system would.

It is interesting that Ed Miliband, in his big conference speech, announced he would support AV.

It is not certain what the result of the referendum will be. AV is not a lost cause, as some people have feared.

by Gary J on Fri Oct 1st, 2010 at 03:06:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well it's always theorised that the slump in support between elections is down to a lack of media exposure between elections, The vast amount of coverage being for the government of the day and the official opposition. And at the moment they seem to be getting a larger amount of media coverage than the other two parties (Apart from this last week with the conference) So if this theory is correct, then you'd expect their numbers to actually go down come the election.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 09:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series