Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
There will be a postcript in about 10 jours, when "special votes" are tallied.

Votes cast outside the electorate one is registered in -- from overseas, for example -- are transmitted to the appropriate electorate, tallied, and announced when the process is finished.

This may well tip the balance in a couple of electorates -- notably in Christchurch Central, which is a dead heat on election night, and is generally tipped to stay Labour once the votes of those displaced by the earthquake are tallied.  But this will not change the overall tally, as any electorate gained or lost will be compensated by the party's list seats.

BUT... traditionally the Greens do very well on special votes (such as mine). I haven't crunched the numbers myself, but here's a well-regarded blogger who has :

Election '11: the special votes * Legal Beagle * Public Address

Preliminary Estimated
National 47.99% 60 47.46% 59
Labour 27.13% 34 27.29% 34
Green 10.62% 13 11.06% 14
New Zealand First 6.81% 8 6.59% 8
Māori Party 1.35% 3 1.43% 3
Mana 1.00% 1 1.06% 1
ACT 1.07% 1 1.05% 1
United Future 0.61% 1 0.60% 1
Conservative 2.76% 0 2.70% 0


So as things stand, we are expected to pick up a 14th seat, at the expense of National.

This does not change the confidence and supply equation, as this has already been stitched up, as described above by Bruce. However, the government's ability to pass legislation is impaired. In the previous parliament, they had a stable, if thin, majority with National and ACT alone. In the new parliament, although National has gained, ACT was almost wiped out, and between them (if the Greens steal another seat), they no longer have a majority.

National's major campaign issue was privatization of state assets. It's possible that the sole "United Future" MP will sign up for this-- he's always been for hire in the past-- but he hasn't yet committed.

I would not have expected the Maori Party, who have been punished by their electorate for their support for National, to support the alienation of infrastructure, but...

Turia: Iwi want to be 'major players' in asset sales - National - NZ Herald News

Iwi want to be "major players" if the new National Government goes through with its planned state asset sales, Maori Party leader Tariana Turia says.

So according to her, their votes are for hire, as long as Maori tribes are allowed to be major shareholders. Sounds promising.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Nov 27th, 2011 at 11:39:38 AM EST
... (and none of this is prior knowledge ~ I am googling this myself then passing it on) ...

The 2008 result (party list seats in parentheses) had a parliament of 122 because of 2 MaoriP overhang seats ...

NatP - 58 (17)
LabP - 43 (22)
GrnP - 9 (9)
ACT - 5 (4)
MaoriP - 5 (0)* (overhang of 2)
Prog - 1 (0)
UFtr - 1 (0)
NZ1st - 0 (0)

So the confidence/supply support coalition backing the minority NatP government was 69 (of 122 including the two MaoriP overhang seats).

It has fallen to 65|64 (of 121), seemingly due to ACT and the Maori Party receiving "supporting player punishment" for small parties in support of a major party in government (similar to the collapse in support for the Irish Greens and the coming collapse in the UK Libs).

The MaoriP punishment was split between one defection gaining reelection and one constituency lost to the LabP ~ given splitting of constituency and party list votes, their hit is on the constituency seat level.

The ACT punishment was on the party list, with their vote share falling from 3.65% to an expected 1.05%, enough to justify the single constituency they hold without an overhang, but electing no party list MP's at all.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Nov 27th, 2011 at 12:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... seemed to play a role in the reduced MaoriP vote. Mixed emotions for Maori Party's Turia:
The Maori Party had made considerable gains for its people by being a support party to National, Mrs Turia said.

"But part of the problem is people listen to ... the rhetoric of people like (New Zealand First leader) Winston (Peters) and the Mana Party, and in the end they gain votes at our expense.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Nov 27th, 2011 at 02:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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