I've just been internalising a really complicated situation in my head | Pundit

The news declared that the National Party had had a 'historic' election victory on Saturday but, if that was true, National Party people would be looking happier. The reality is much more complicated

Here's the bullet-point version, to begin:

• National won about the same number of votes it did three years ago (it got a higher percentage of the total vote owing to falling voter turnout)
• National has an almost unmanageably thin majority in Parliament; party insiders are not at all happy
• Winston Peters is back as a fly in the National Party's ointment, in a large part because John Key and Steven Joyce mucked up over the Epsom tea party
• MMP is here to stay, meaning governments need to win a real majority and not just a high single party vote
• 50% of voters voted against National, despite its popular leader
• Many National votes were won because of its apparently easy-going and centrist leader, not because people necessarily support its policies
• Well over 50% of the public opposes key National Party policies such as privatisation ('asset sales')
• The ACT Party, National's most important coalition partner, died on election night
• There are signs that National has passed the high point of its popularity and will now start to decline
• There are signs that National leader John Key has passed the high point of his popularity and will now start to decline.
• The coming three years will be the playing out of these things. It is going to be very different to National's first three years in government.

That's the summary. If you'd like the long version, read on.