Quite a lot hangs on the decisions made by the Maori Party leadership. If they use the power of their three vote buffer to negotiate a deal with the NatP, they need to bring away something that will make their constituents happy in greater measure than their constituents are unhappy with a NatP government in general.

And if they were of an inclination to turn back the best deal they can get, which is likely to be better than the deal they got last time ... they probably wouldn't have been inclined to take the deal they took last time, which cost them two seats, via defection and loss of a seat to the LabP.

But if they pursue a deal, its easy to see them getting completely wiped out in three year's time, with four way races in all Maori Seats between the Maori Party, the Labour Party, the Mana Party, and NZ1st. Maori Seat voters who vote Maori Party so that the Labour Party cannot take them for granted would seem to be especially fertile ground for an appealing Mana Party candidate.

And voters who presently have the habit of splitting their votes between the Maori Party and the Labour Party in a seat where the Mana Party candidate does not look like getting up could perhaps be persuaded to split their ticket, cast their constituency vote to their preference among the leaders, but give their party vote to the Mana Party.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.