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Though I feel I still have to gather some more data on the issue, I second the ideas of other here. Unilateral military action by Iran against oil tankers in the strait of Hormuz seems unlikely at this stage. Strategically this would put Iran against all the Arab nations in the region that export oil. A really desperate situation must come for something like this to make sense.

Most likely Iran will continue trading with China and India and keep access to basic goods. But the trade surplus can close rapidly if these countries cannot absorb the remaining production that today goes to Korea, Japan and other OECD countries. There are several potential impacts from this, certainly hitting the common man in the street.


by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Fri Dec 30th, 2011 at 04:00:40 PM EST
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Oil is reasonably fungible. India and China can re-sell the Iranian oil if the price gap between what India pays and the Brent exchange gets too high.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 30th, 2011 at 07:21:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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