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Don't talk about "leaving the Euro" - talk about "instituting capital controls and issuing scrip as in the Wörgl experiment" until such time as the ECB starts doing its job.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 04:51:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That was six months ago.

If policy does not change, leaving the € altogether will be the superior alternative for Greece. They have nothing to gain by beating around the bush about this. Six months ago, it looked like the € might still, overall and in the long view, be a good idea for Greece. Back then, circumspection was indicated.

And six months ago, you could have made the case for the Greeks to be circumspect out of a sense of European solidarity. But enough is enough. If the creditor nations want to play every country for itself, then the debtor nations can only continue to take the high road for so long.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 09:48:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A sad end for the European dream.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 10:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least it stands to die not with a bang, but with a whimper. Considering that the number of fatalities from the last time Europe went "bang" are counted in nine figures, I think we should be grateful for small favours.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 12:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that the idea with the EU is to prevent further bangs. The end of the EU is not itself a bang. It is what comes after that might be, as it where, bang-inducing.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 07:27:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
I think the Internet's ability to increase global frustration by informing people what is available, and what they do not have, is underrated.

you can definitely make that point, but how else can a head of steam big enough to change anything fundamental build up?

history shows the printing press and its effects on peoples' desire to overthrow oppression, the internet can do orders of magnitude more, it's barely begun.

maybe frustration is just the beginning of empowerment, certainly it beats apathy and ignorance, which have been the meat and potatoes of european public economic/political awareness since? WW2?

i had never connected the dots before, but the wave of rage and yearning in these latest uprisings in n. africa and the middle east may well be the thread that will unravel the plunderers' plans to keep milking us europeans all'americana, captured governments, finance 'riding bareback', institutionalised ponzi pyramids et al.

certainly any major interruption/price rise of the oil supply will accelerate the pace of change, hopefully educating many hitherto untroubled by serious crises, just how we are all in similar -if not identical- lifeboats.

frustration is the first twitch in the moribund, learned-helpless, shock-doctrined populace. even as we are introduced to the sting of the IMF lash here, we can relate better to what is happening in the arab world, whose corruption has much -if not all- connection to our greedy meddling and peddling too long.

we are fortunate indeed that the mass of the arab street is not directly blaming us for their plight, and hope this continues, it seems like only the rabid irani theocrats have a hate-on for the west, and that's not even their people, the other maghreb and ME countries want to join with our youth and have a life not that different than the youth here or anywhere else they can have a FB page and chat away...

the internet makes it all seem so tantalisingly just out of reach, it must be infuriating.

as we see...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 03:19:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see above however that some have said that moving to a new currency will improve the Greek import-export dynamic. Every country is different however, and Greece doesn't have much in the way of manufacturing. A new currency might improve the level of its valuations in the future, but two of Greece's biggest industries are tourism and shipping. In both, you have external euros coming into the country. one might argue that two of Greece's economic brightpoints are actually forms of export (inasmuch as Greek tourist goods are sold to tourists from other countries) and also a service industry (shipping) that deals almost exclusively with foreign clients. Presumably, there may be a way to keep the level of Greek tourist prices what they are, but I don't see how you can do it without artificial controls. Also note that though the Greek tourism industry can surely improve and become more efficient, the switch to the Euro (and the rise in tourism prices which is undeniable) did not decrease the numbers of tourists to Greece. In the last decade, tourism increased year over year until the crisis.

Finally, about reducing Greek debt to the level that it was prior to the crisis, it's important to remember that creditors fled Greece when it's level of debt to GDP was at 110%. It had been at 95-105% for at least a decade if not more.  So, presumably, a reduction to that level would not improve things as far as credit goes because those levels are the levels which spooked the credit markets in the first place (after several hedge funds made huge short bets against the country).

Finally, it may be that Greek banks are repatriating Greek debt by having the ECB back them in their purchases of Greek bonds, thereby paying off outside creditors while the EU and Greek banks take on more EU debt. In other words, the longer these austerity measures continue, then we come to the point when the totality of the debt has moved from private hands to EU taxpayers and Greek banks.

by Upstate NY on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 11:29:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Finally, it may be that Greek banks are repatriating Greek debt by having the ECB back them in their purchases of Greek bonds, thereby paying off outside creditors while the EU and Greek banks take on more EU debt. In other words, the longer these austerity measures continue, then we come to the point when the totality of the debt has moved from private hands to EU taxpayers and Greek banks.

I could live with that. Then all you have to do is shaft the Greek banks and the ECB, which is if nothing else politically easier than shafting German pension funds.

But unless the ECB is moving massively in this market, it's mostly cosmetic anyway, because these buybacks will be matched by Greek interbank debt to the rest of the €-zone. So shafting the Greek banks will still shaft the creditor countries.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 12:24:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But unless the ECB is moving massively in this market, it's mostly cosmetic anyway

We know the ECB has bought under 80bn of Euro sovereign debt. That's no more than 1/3 of Greece's outstanding debt.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 18th, 2011 at 01:49:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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