The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
GERMANY IS UNFIT FOR THE EURO (Joerg Bibow)
Not for the first time in its history the German people have been irresponsibly misled by a political leadership that seems to have lost any sense of history, any sense of order and stability in Europe, and any sense of Germany's key contributing role to the current crisis. As ever, the mindset of lawyers frames the political debate among a political class that seems inhumanly uneducated in matters of economics. If economic voices are heard at all, it is usually the voice of the Bundesbank. It is a peculiar democracy that expects either its constitutional court or central bank to have the final word of wisdom.
I can foresee two outcomes. First, Germany might end up in a procyclical downward spiral of debt reduction and low growth. In that case, the constitutionally prescribed pursuit of a balanced budget would require ever greater budgetary cuts to compensate for a loss of tax revenues. ... One could also construct a virtuous cycle - the second outcome. If Germany were to return to a pre-crisis level of growth in 2011, and all is well after that, the consolidation phase would then start in a cyclical upturn. Either of those scenarios, even the positive one, is going to be hugely damaging to the eurozone. In the first case, the German economy would become a structural basket case, and would drag down the rest of Europe for a generation. In the second case, economic and political tensions inside the eurozone are going to become unbearable. ... ... While the balanced budget law is economically illiterate, it is also universally popular. Average Germans do not primarily regard debt in terms of its economic meaning, but as a moral issue. ... ... The balanced budget constitutional law is therefore not about economics. It is a moral crusade, and it is the last thing, Germany, the eurozone and the world need right now.
...
One could also construct a virtuous cycle - the second outcome. If Germany were to return to a pre-crisis level of growth in 2011, and all is well after that, the consolidation phase would then start in a cyclical upturn.
Either of those scenarios, even the positive one, is going to be hugely damaging to the eurozone. In the first case, the German economy would become a structural basket case, and would drag down the rest of Europe for a generation. In the second case, economic and political tensions inside the eurozone are going to become unbearable. ...
While the balanced budget law is economically illiterate, it is also universally popular. Average Germans do not primarily regard debt in terms of its economic meaning, but as a moral issue. ...
... The balanced budget constitutional law is therefore not about economics. It is a moral crusade, and it is the last thing, Germany, the eurozone and the world need right now.
The "debt brake" has now become a condition that Germany wants to impose on the entire EU as a conditionality for allowing enough money to be lent to get over the sovereign debt crisis.
Since the debt brake is economically harebrained, default and let the chips fall where they may is looking better by the day, to be honest. Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
And Germany did get somewhat better through the crisis, because it did talk austerity, but did do stimulus.
Just like everyone is doing austerity in 2010.
And if "doing stimulus" is how Germany got out of the crisis, countries that haven't still gotten out of the crisis should continue to do stimulus.
Nobody is claiming that the German debt brake caused anything before it was enacted. The claim is that the debt brake is strongly deflationary, which will only make growth more sluggish and debt more unsustainable in the future, and is therefore incredibly harebrained. Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
What is necessary, if it is necessary, is a new deal about the interest rate. But that is not the same as a default on sovereign debt engineered to hit only foreigners.
And am not sure why you want to argue about german economic policies 2008-2010: Clearly fiscal expansion, reaching their height in the first half of 2010. Is that really in doubt anymore?
This whole Ireland is insolvent meme is nonsense. There have be quite a number of countries with a public debt around 100% of gdp.
This whole Ireland is insolvent meme is nonsense.
Perhaps you should be arguing this point with the bond raiders, who seem unusually keen to assure everyone otherwise.
And if you swear fealty to "the markets", how do you think they will react to a default?
In the case of Ireland, if you think Ireland is solvent, then it is in fact being subjected to an irrational run (withdrawal of short-term liquidity). The proper response in that case is for the Central Bank to provide liquidity at a reasonable non-market rate.
Instead of that the Central Bank tells the Irish government to call in the IMF.
Also, when the European Council tries to organise a collective fiscal facility, Germany screams "no bail-out clause!". When the ECB tries to buy sovereign bonds in the secondary market, the (German) Chief Economist and the Bundesbank chair wrongly claim that is forbidden by treaty (the treaty forbids buying at issue, which is bad enough already). The European Commission, Council, Ecofin and Central Bank are all such neoliberal market-worshippers that they actually take the market's assessment of Ireland's solvency at face value.
The Irish "rescue package" entails, under any plausible scenarios, including the ones put together by the Ecofin, an actual increase in the Irish debt burden, while at the same time demanding IMF-style "conditionalities". Some "rescue". No wonder the Irish government didn't want to be "rescued" and had to be forced. Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
What's happening is that the Irish sovereign is being funded at 5.7 % when it should be funded at 0.0 %.
The fact that the ECB has finally woken up and started doing its job w.r.t. the private Irish banks (a decade late and a billion short) does not excuse the fact that the ECB still isn't doing its job and printing money on demand for the Irish government.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Analogously, no individual Irishman is responsible for the economic policy of the Irish government. Or are they? You have argued elsewhere on this thread that they are. Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
Since the ECB is obviously unresponsive to the plight of Irish widows and orphans, the Irish state has a duty to protect Irish widows and orphans, and incentivise the ECB to start doing its fucking job and printing money on demand at 0.0 % to sovereigns needing stimulus. The easiest way to incentivise proper behaviour from the ECB is to cause pain to the ECB's political backers. Which means causing pain to the Frankfurt-based banks, and which means causing pain to Mrs Merkel's government.
You call it nationalist. I call it realpolitik. If you have some alternate suggestion for how to get the ECB to start providing unlimited stimulus money for the Irish economy at somewhere around the Frankfurt overnight rate, then I'm all ears. But so far you have presented no viable political strategy for how the Irish can continue to do stimulus without defaulting. And you have provided no political strategy - nevermind a credible one - for how the Irish state can obtain the necessary liquidity for continued stimulus without either leaving the -zone or threatening to default on foreigners first, in order to pressure those foreigners' governments to pressure the ECB.
Since you seem so keen on applying collective punishment to Ireland for electing Fianna Fail, you may think of it as applying collective punishment to any polity that doesn't pressure the ECB to start doing its fucking job and printing unlimited money for use in Keynesian stimulus.
I am not responsible for the policy position of the german government.
But the Irish pensioners and unemployed that you're happily throwing under the bus are responsible for the actions of their government?
You can't have it both ways. Either the Irish people don't deserve to suffer for electing evil morons to high office, or the German people don't deserve to get bailed out, because they elected evil morons to high office.
Don't you think there is collective responsibility?
I do believe in defeating neoliberal policies whenever and wherever they sully humanity with their depravity. In this particular situation, defeating neoliberal policies means defeating Austerity. Defeating Austerity means threatening Mrs. Merkel and Messrs. Weber and Stark with a sufficiently big stick that they start printing money wholesale. And the only stick Ireland has that is big enough to make Messrs. Weber and Stark shit their pants and start printing money wholesale is the threat of making several major German financial institutions insolvent.
And if a German pension fund or two is collateral damage in that fight, well then there's nothing wrong with insolvent private pension funds that better public pensions won't solve.
If you have a better plan for how to fight back against "Hartz IV For Ireland," then I'm all ears.
by gmoke - Jun 10
by Frank Schnittger - May 31
by Oui - May 30 50 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 23 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 27 3 comments
by Oui - May 13 66 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 10
by Oui - Jun 91 comment
by Oui - Jun 58 comments
by Oui - Jun 257 comments
by Oui - Jun 112 comments
by Oui - May 31120 comments
by Oui - May 3050 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 273 comments
by Oui - May 2742 comments
by Oui - May 24
by Frank Schnittger - May 233 comments
by Oui - May 1366 comments
by Oui - May 928 comments
by Oui - May 450 comments
by Oui - Apr 30273 comments
by Oui - Apr 2666 comments
by Oui - Apr 8108 comments
by Oui - Mar 19145 comments