Irish pushback strategy - we get mail | 305 comments (305 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Irish pushback strategy - we get mail (4.00 / 2)

_ Is it really so absurd to say, this can't go on we need a permanent solution?_

Yeah, the permanent solution is for the new Dail to renege on the blanket guarantee of all bank liabilities adopted by the previous government in October 2008. This will burn some creditors of the Irish banks. It will be a sovereign default since presumably the guarantee by now has legal standing.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 04:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irish pushback strategy - we get mail (none / 0)

What do you mean exactly by this? Repeal the guarantee and return to just the general EU wide 20.000 deposit insurance? And then bankruptcy of the troubled banks?

That would actually make sense.

But that is not the proposal of the post and not the proposal of most of the commentators here who want to default on all Irish government debt.

by IM on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 05:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irish pushback strategy - we get mail (4.00 / 3)

Everyone seems to think the Irish government guaranteed all deposits. That's not what they did.

They guaranteed the entire balance sheet of the banks, from deposits to senior to junior debt to derivatives to whatever.

So bondholders had a government guarantee they didn't have before.

I'm not saying repeal the deposit guarantee. After all, depositors have always been and will always remain the most senior creditors of any regulated bank. No, I'm saying repeal the blanket guarantee of the entire unsecured debt of the Irish banks.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 05:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irish pushback strategy - we get mail (none / 1)

A unlimited deposit insurance is still a bridge to far. But how helps the fact that the irish government was even madder us now?

The plan outlined in the post above discriminates between foreign and domestic creditors. Do you support that?

by IM on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 05:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irish pushback strategy - we get mail (none / 0)

No, actually, I don't think that's sensible. It's also contrary to core EU principles and would be challenged it the European Court of Law.

However, as an initial threat in order to bargain down to a sensible position it might make sense.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 06:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irish pushback strategy - we get mail (4.00 / 2)

Distinguishing between foreign and domestic creditors does make sense: Foreign creditors have a second safety net in their own government; Irish creditors have no such thing. And as a practical matter, Frankfurt and Bruxelles are going to be a lot more sensitive to British, German and French creditors than to domestic Irish creditors.

If the powers that be do not want German taxpayers to bail out Greek sovereign bonds, then there is no reason for Irish taxpayers to bail out German pension funds.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 5th, 2011 at 02:09:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Irish pushback strategy - we get mail | 305 comments (305 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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