Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
It's an interesting thing to look back on predictions from climatological history... but it's barely relevant to predicting the future. To grossly over-simplify : they were trying to fit observed patterns while using too few variables; so they ended up with a CO2 sensitivity that now appears excessive.

But is it excessive, or is it being masked by other forcings? Cooling factors (particularly photochemical smog, and particles suspended in the atmosphere) are much better understood nowadays; and they are short-term phenomena. When China and India clean up their industry (and they will, and sooner than we expect), the cooling effect will greatly diminish; the particles will precipitate out of the atmosphere, but the CO2 will still be there. And the net CO2 forcing will make the temperature trend much steeper.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 02:38:16 AM EST
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