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If the Greenland ice core data is applicable the transition will take 10 - 20 years.  That's 10-20 years from the start of the transition, not 10-20 years from 2011.

It's impossible to accurately pin-point a starting date of a transition in a Complex System until after the transition is completed.  The abnormal, to expectation, weather and weather patterns and patternings since 2007/2008 suggests, to me, we're already 2 or 3 years into it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Feb 5th, 2011 at 01:31:26 PM EST
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While we do not know with any precision what the ambient average temperature of the whole earth is in any year there have been many markers emerge. Some are: the average extent of Arctic ocean ice at the end of the Arctic summer; the acceleration of the melt rate of tropical glaciers; the melt rates of continental glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica; the southward migration of the permafrost line in Alaska, Canada and Siberia; the reduction of tropical rain-forests and the acidification of the oceans. Some of these factors are associated with the storage or release of carbon in the earth's surface, all moving in the direction of warming.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 5th, 2011 at 04:20:30 PM EST
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