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As the Duke of Ellington once said, "All god's chilluns got music, even the damn mathematicians."

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun May 22nd, 2011 at 04:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... well, I'll be happy to bet you a beer that there will not be a rapture on 11 May 2012.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 22nd, 2011 at 04:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will be a pleasure to lose this bet, and in fact, cover the entire evening. You handle travel, and i'm there.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun May 22nd, 2011 at 04:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oops, that's 11 May 2021.

Anyway, I may be able to save enough for a trip to Europe by 2021, though maybe I should save it in RMB¥.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 23rd, 2011 at 02:14:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Save in grain. Or grain alcohol.

The RMB¥ may well have been de-pegged from the US$ by then, making it fairly useless for US/EU travel.

I'd say "save in €," since the BuBa will ensure that the currency is sound, even if it has to kill the Union to do so. But exchanging those € for D-Mark when Europe goes to shit due to that attitude would be a hassle.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 24th, 2011 at 05:09:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Save in Bunds, then.

Economics is politics by other means
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 24th, 2011 at 05:10:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Depegging only hurts if it drops as a result. Since the effect of the basket peg is to discount the RMB¥, unpegging would seem likely to increase its US$ or € value.

Of more concern would be a loss of the existing warlords and mandarins of China of the mandate of heaven.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue May 24th, 2011 at 02:47:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depegging only hurts if it drops as a result. Since the effect of the basket peg is to discount the RMB¥, unpegging would seem likely to increase its US$ or € value.

Depends. If they de-peg because domestic inflation has turned their previously undervalued peg into an overvalued peg, you might be in for a rude surprise.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 24th, 2011 at 04:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
why would that cause them to depeg? they have a hidden basket peg, so they can adjust peg incrementally as they go.

if you mean, maybe they'll have runaway inflation and negative real interest rates ~ well, yeah, but since us$ is from an economy actively pursuing deindustrialization and the development of underdevelopment, the us$ risk of runaway inflation is more severe.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue May 24th, 2011 at 08:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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