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Except that oil has virtually no capability to recover stocks

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 12th, 2011 at 06:34:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course it does. God wouldn't let us run out of oil.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu May 12th, 2011 at 07:09:10 AM EST
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Over a 1000 Million year timeframe, no problem.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 12th, 2011 at 10:49:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.

I find it illuminating to use, e.g., "we are predating oil to scarcity along an exponential growth curve," as an analytical heuristic.  Thinking along these lines it becomes immediately apparent if the replacement rate of the prey (oil) is below predation (extraction) rate systematic use of the prey (oil) MUST, at some point, change the "ecology," or Fitness Landscape, necessarily leading to a change in consumption patterns of the predators (Actors) to accommodate lowering availability of the prey.  This change in consumption patterns changes the predation rate, which changes the Fitness Landscape, changing the predation rate, & round and round we go.

There is more that fall out of the heuristic, I'll only mention one: emergent behaviors, and everything that EB drags along, are inherent.  This is in sharp contrast to NCE where EB, e.g., "Black Swans," are always a surprise.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu May 12th, 2011 at 01:27:44 PM EST
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