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You're grasping at straws with your "follow the money".
Guilty as charged...
I'm still looking for a tangible villain. Given the mechanical inevitability of default for Greece (barring a deus-ex-machina from the ECB, which I think we can agree is not on the cards), the smart money is presumably gaming the ECB's stupidity for all it's worth.
The most obvious way of doing this is by buying CDS.
Therefore, anyone taking a major bet on Greek default, through a CDS position, may wish to influence outcomes by blocking off all alternatives to full payment (impossible) or default (jackpot).
Ratings agencies which declare "anything which is different from full payment (e.g. voluntary rollover) is equivalent to default" would seem to fit with such a strategy.
The head of a ratings agency who secretly held a massive CDS position might make a satisfying villain.
Just thinking out loud here. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
My head hurts. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
If you sell insurance with no intention of paying out, is that not fraudulent? Economics is politics by other means
This is all a matter of parasitical side-bets on the main events of Euro liquidity/solvency matters, but the stakes are high.
It could all get quite violent. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Writing a crime novel is easy, comparatively speaking. But I would prefer that it were plausible and didactic in nature.
It's a variation on the old "insure and burn" scam. No, it's actually more like match-fixing : placing bets on outcomes, and reducing the uncertainties.
I would prefer if I could identify actors who stand to gain from the Euro crisis itself, rather than CDS side-bets, and who might therefore wish to influence outcomes. But I haven't identified anyone yet : it looks like a lose-lose-lose situation, a seriously negative-sum game. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Götterdammerüng, and lots of humping among the ruins. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
I would prefer if I could identify actors who stand to gain from the Euro crisis itself, rather than CDS side-bets, and who might therefore wish to influence outcomes. But I haven't identified anyone yet : it looks like a lose-lose-lose situation, a seriously negative-sum game.
In terms of money? Certainly.
In terms of goods and resources? Absolutely.
In terms of power? No. Power over others is a zero-sum game.
But of course this is a case where reality is unrealistic. It is hard to make a character in a book motivated by power over other people without having him become a caricature sociopath.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
If you sell insurance with no intention of paying out, is that not fraudulent?
That is the advantage for the buyer of having insurance regulated. But since this is not insurance, I guess pretending to insure would be the correct name of the service. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
the whole point of CDS swaps was to enable you to treat risky junk as though they were AAA investments and relieve you of the obnoxious reserve requirements
Capitalism: CDS buyers pretend to buy insurance and CDS sellers pretend to sell it.
Hm, not as catchy. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
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