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Writing a crime novel is easy, comparatively speaking. But I would prefer that it were plausible and didactic in nature.
It's a variation on the old "insure and burn" scam. No, it's actually more like match-fixing : placing bets on outcomes, and reducing the uncertainties.
I would prefer if I could identify actors who stand to gain from the Euro crisis itself, rather than CDS side-bets, and who might therefore wish to influence outcomes. But I haven't identified anyone yet : it looks like a lose-lose-lose situation, a seriously negative-sum game. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
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