Most of the peripherals have no business, economically speaking, being in a currency union (or any other sort of fixed-rate regime) with Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. Ireland is different, because it has a structural internal current accounts surplus. But for various reasons of historical accident, Ireland is getting shafted. And there comes a point when one must weigh the cost of leaving the Eurozone against the cost of getting shafted for the benefit of Societé Generel and Joseph Ackerman's Christmas bonus.

My gut feeling is that Ireland is approaching the point where it might make sense to just say "fuck it" and issue scrip. But where you fall on that trade-off depends on how you value the future relative to the present, and that is fundamentally a political decision that I, as a foreigner, have no business making for Ireland.

And of course that's only the economics. It is possible to attach political value to the continued existence of the Euro, and be willing to pay an economic price for keeping this political value. Again, that's a political decision that I can't make for the Irish electorate. Though I do note in passing that aforementioned economic price is, under current institutional arrangements, borne disproportionally by the less well off.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.