The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
I still think, one Euro, with both Euro "Treasuries" AND forced haircuts will do less damage than what i really think most thinkers really think. (Couldn't Greece defaulting be spun as Euro policy "forced haircuts?") "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Another option, almost never mentioned but very reasonable and practical in my mind, is the periphery default solution. This means that periphery nations will partially default on their debts and institute haircuts on their bonds. This will not really cause any losses to the banks and others who hold periphery debt, as soon as they cease their make-believe and start marking their bonds to market. The losses have already happened, and the sooner this is realized, the earlier healing and de-zombiefication can begin.
And probably suggested by Jake S and Migs and others going back to the mezozoic, or at least a few years ago. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
I was more in favour of something along the lines of this
Nothing will scare those betting against Europe more than unleashing the unlimited balance sheet. Only the ECB fits this bill. The ECB needs to turn the fire hose in support of the sovereigns on the firing line. They have already been pinning Spanish and Italian debt at around a 5% yield. They may soon need to support France. But rather than being stealthy about it, they need to commit to it up front. Worrying about undermining reform resolve in Italy and Spain, while understandable, is, at this point, a second order issue. There are other ways to scare the passenger without threatening to drive your own car over the cliff. The ECB should either state or heavily imply that until further notice they are willing to subjugate their single mandate to this objective. Those worried about inflation should take comfort from the experiences of Japan and the US. And, lastly, of course there must be continued liquidity support for the banking sector even after the recapitalization. This will be a hard, but necessary sell.
Is it:
For reference, 1) and 2) are untrue as a matter of fact, 3) is excuse-making and 4) is an ideological rather than operational objection.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
but we know this crisis has a moral dimension for many of the people involved.
In psychology, this is usually called projection - where one's personal failings are palmed off on others, who are then painted black and punished for them.
Once again it's obvious that the financial classes have some very serious psychological and emotional problems.
Unfortunately our 'moral' politics selects for and rewards those same problems.
One Market Under God: Extreme Capitalism, Market Populism, and the End of Economic Democracy is a 2000 book by historian and author Thomas Frank. It was published by Anchor Books. The book traces the development of what Frank calls "market populism: the idea that markets are a far more democratic form of organization than democratically elected governments." He also discusses many facets of the New Economy, "culture studs," and internet brokerages. An excerpt of the book was the cover story of the October 12, 2000 issue of The Nation [1]. It was reviewed in The American Prospect on December 18, 2000 [2], in The New York Times on December 21, 2000 [3]
Why has the ECB refused to take up its responsibility of lender of last resort in the government bond markets (while it has dutifully taken up this responsibility during the banking crisis)? A popular answer is that the ECB should not do this because it risks losing money. This is certainly the wrong answer. When there is confidence that the central bank will operate as a lender of last resort in the sovereign bond markets, the central bank does not have to act as a lender of last resort most of the time. And when it has to do so, we should not really worry about the fact that it loses money. What matters is financial stability, not the profit and loss account of the central bank. A central bank can always fill the holes by printing money. A more serious concern is moral hazard, i.e. the risk that if the ECB guarantees that cash will always be available to pay out sovereign bond holders, this will lead governments to issue too much debt. But this risk of moral hazard is no different from the risk of moral hazard in the banking system. The way to deal with this risk is not to abolish the role of lender of last resort but to create rules that will constrain governments in issuing debt. The ECB has been influenced too much by the one-dimensional theory of inflation targeting. According to that theory, all a central bank should do is to stabilize the price level. All the rest will then also be stable. Historically, however, central banks have been invested with another equally important task, i.e. to ensure financial stability, which includes stabilizing the government bond market. By refusing this role in the Eurozone, the ECB has become the single most important reason why the Eurozone crisis cannot be stopped.
A more serious concern is moral hazard, i.e. the risk that if the ECB guarantees that cash will always be available to pay out sovereign bond holders, this will lead governments to issue too much debt. But this risk of moral hazard is no different from the risk of moral hazard in the banking system. The way to deal with this risk is not to abolish the role of lender of last resort but to create rules that will constrain governments in issuing debt.
The ECB has been influenced too much by the one-dimensional theory of inflation targeting. According to that theory, all a central bank should do is to stabilize the price level. All the rest will then also be stable. Historically, however, central banks have been invested with another equally important task, i.e. to ensure financial stability, which includes stabilizing the government bond market. By refusing this role in the Eurozone, the ECB has become the single most important reason why the Eurozone crisis cannot be stopped.
by gmoke - Oct 1
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 24 3 comments
by Oui - Sep 19 19 comments
by Oui - Sep 13 36 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 11 5 comments
by Cat - Sep 13 9 comments
by gmoke - Oct 4
by Oui - Sep 3025 comments
by Oui - Sep 29
by Oui - Sep 283 comments
by Oui - Sep 2716 comments
by Oui - Sep 2620 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 243 comments
by Oui - Sep 1919 comments
by gmoke - Sep 173 comments
by Oui - Sep 153 comments
by Oui - Sep 15
by Oui - Sep 1411 comments
by Oui - Sep 1336 comments
by Cat - Sep 139 comments
by Oui - Sep 1210 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 115 comments
by Oui - Sep 929 comments
by Oui - Sep 713 comments
by Oui - Sep 61 comment