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Industrial and agricultural replacement cycles are much, much longer especially in a depression. The guy who runs the stables just bought a truck that was ten years old to replace his previous horse mover. I have no idea how old any of his agricultural machinery is other than that it far more than ten years old.  You'll have easy access to diesel - what do they run machines off in the US - for much longer.

Replacement cycles in poorer areas are much longer as well.

Taking out cars is only 40% of oil use anyway. What model are you using to determine the knock-on effects of that?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 07:39:54 AM EST
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Industrial and agricultural uses involve a lot of off-roading and short burst of high power. For those applications diesel, biodiesel, or synthetic liquid fuels (e.g., Dimethyl ether) may still be used. But road transport and personal transportation take the bulk of the fuel use and that can be switched to electric.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 07:42:21 AM EST
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