You know all those projections that predict a slow and gradual transition to battery powered cars? They are wrong. They are extremely wrong. That is not how technological transitions work.

It typically takes a decade and a half from launch for new consumer technology to achieve 50 % of its long-term market penetration. Less for technologies that piggy-back on or involve cheap retrofits of existing technology with wide penetration. Greater for capital-intensive technologies like Broadband and a replacement of the automobile fleet.

So you're looking at two decades from first commercial availability to 50 % of market saturation, and more like three to full market saturation.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.