Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
You know all those projections that predict a slow and gradual transition to battery powered cars? They are wrong. They are extremely wrong. That is not how technological transitions work.

It typically takes a decade and a half from launch for new consumer technology to achieve 50 % of its long-term market penetration. Less for technologies that piggy-back on or involve cheap retrofits of existing technology with wide penetration. Greater for capital-intensive technologies like Broadband and a replacement of the automobile fleet.

So you're looking at two decades from first commercial availability to 50 % of market saturation, and more like three to full market saturation.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 09:01:10 AM EST
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