Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
oh, for fuck sake, this discussion is getting really dull and repetetive. It is also barking up the wrong tree entirely.
Prediction: Within the decade, oil production will crash very hard, and very fast, but not because of any difficulty of supply, but because demand, and price, falls off a cliff due to the inevitably extremely abrupt transition to electric motoring. You know all those projections that predict a slow and gradual transition to battery powered cars? They are wrong. They are extremely wrong. That is not how technological transitions work. Once a suitable battery is commercially available (And volkswagens kolibri design is sufficiently good. So this is not a matter of tech breakthroughs, merely of production start up) Gasoline cars become as unsellable as a steam engine locomotive. Gas is dear, electrons are cheap, and the driving experince of an equivalently powerful electrically powered veichle is flat out superior to that of a gas burner. This means that the transition away from gasoline will be absolute, and penetration will reach 100% in much less than a decade, as people replace their cars on their regular cycle, and then the last holdouts are forced to do so because the economic rationale for selling petrol on thousands of streetcorners disappears, and finding a place to fuel an old clunker becomes as hard as finding a public charge point is today. Oil will then be relegated to chemical feedstock and other niche uses.
by Thomas on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 03:57:07 AM EST

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